[plz_throw]

Putin said this over and over again and no red line actually startet the nuclear war he threatened everyone with [1].

On the other hand, our reactions to crossing red lines are also nonexistent

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_lines_in_the_Russo-Ukrai...

[roenxi]

> Woodward writes that Biden's national security team at one point believed there was a real threat, a 50 per cent chance, that Putin would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

~ https://www.9news.com.au/world/new-book-reveals-candid-behin...

Hopefully they are exaggerating for effect. A strategy of actively probing for Russia's breaking point is ruinously stupid; when you find it the odds are pretty good that it will be because they are at the point where they are willing to go nuclear. They might try some sort of escalate-to-de-escalate strike on NATO but there must be a pretty decent chance that would just escalate and the Russian command would be aware of that.

Not lobbing missiles in to Russia is an entirely reasonable red line. We got all the way through the Afghan war and the Iraq war without anyone launching missiles into the US and that restraint didn't seem to cause any long term problems. Extending similar courtesies to Russia is appropriate.

[somenameforme]

FWIW the US is also 100% aware of this. See the Proud Prophet wargames. [1] It was one of the most extensive, largescale, and 'realistic' wargames ever executed. It was essentially working out a variety of military strategies to try to gain an edge over the USSR - demonstrative nuclear strikes, limited-scale nuclear war, decapitation strikes against leadership, and so on.

The outcome of literally every single scenario was essentially the end of the world with billions dead and the Northern Hemisphere rendered largely inhospitable. This wargame was carried out in 1983. Its conclusion lead the US military and leadership to change course from the previous pattern of escalation as a means of victory, to de-escalation and collaboration. By 1991 the Soviet Union would collapse with their leaders holding hands with American leaders.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proud_Prophet

[somenameforme]

Amazing logic. We keep poking this bear and it hasn't yet stirred. Let's poke it even harder. What could go wrong.

[tilt_error]

Bear? It is more like a stray dog that keeps shitting on your living room carpet. You don’t need to hate the dog, you just keep it on the outside where it can run around and have a great time on it’s own.

[plz_throw]

So what is your plan ? Keep ducking away and enabling Russia to live out it's dreams of a new USSR?