[blueelephanttea]

This entire article seems to be completely based on a non-inflation adjusted write-off value. It is not surprising to me that we are setting write-off records. We were bound to at some point!

It is clear that delinquencies have ticketed up over the last year or two. But this article does not do a particularly good job about contextualizing if this is actually concerning.

Here is the actual rate:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCCT100S

Pretty tough to look at that and determine if this clearly concerning or an moderate adjustment to a changing post-covid environment.

[pests]

I’m having trouble getting thinking this through. If the rate was inflation adjusted, would it appear better or worse?

[blueelephanttea]

It would appear better. The absolute value of written off loans will perpetually increase since the total amount in loans will increase.

The record 2010 number is ~$80 billion in 2024 dollars vs $46 billion this year.