[ZooCow]

I had a similar thought but about asking the LLM to predict “future” major historical events. How much prompting would it take to predict wars, etc.?

[djeastm]

You mean train on pre-1939 data and predict how WWII would go?

[ZooCow]

Right. If it were trained through August 1939, how much prompting would be necessary to get it to predict aspects of WWII.

[david-gpu]

That will never work on any complex system that behaves chaotically, such as the weather or complex human endeavors. Tiny uncertainties in the initial conditions rapidly turn into large uncertainties in the outcomes.

[morbicer]

Not an LLM but models could get pretty good at weather

https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/12/04/1107892/google-d...