[herdcall]

I've been using the latest v13.2.2 and it regularly goes 100% on its own door to door over 1-2 hour trips that I've driven, navigating side roads, highways, lane changes, road blocks, everything, without a single intervention from me. I just sit and watch, it's incredible actually. Again, this is NOT just highway experience, but door to door. I've driven the earlier versions and they were pretty good, but this latest one (v13.2.2) is a huge improvement that makes me feel it's arrived.

[Veserv]

That is a fundamental misunderstanding of the reliability level needed for fully autonomous vehicle operation. A fully self driving vehicle operating outside of a testing safety protocol in use by consumers requires a average disengagement rate not on the order of 1-2 hours, but 1,000-2,000 hours to be considered in the vicinity of fully self driving. You are literally presenting anecdotes that are inadequate by a factor of 1,000x to provide evidence "it's arrived".

Individual driver experience is basically useless for assessing if it has "arrived" due to the fundamental lack of data any one human can generate, however individual driver experience is adequate for assessing if it has not "arrived".

To explain, suppose a manufacturer claims that their widget fails 1 in 1,000,000 times. Suppose a regular human can use 1,000 units. Even if a regular human finds zero failures in their 1,000 unit random sample that does not provide evidence that the manufacturer's claim is true. You need over 1,000,000 samples, usually on the order of 10,000,000 samples, and observe a number of failures comparable to the claimed rate to make any such claim in a statistically rigorous fashion.

In contrast, if 100,000 samples are collected and 10 failures are observed, a rate of 1 in 10,000 which is already a expected failure rate 10x more than the amount any individual person would use, then you can assert with high confidence that the manufacturer's claim is a lie even though you have not even observed 1,000,000 samples as would be required to prove the manufacturer's claim is true. If a regular human discovers more than 1 failure in their 1,000 units, a observed failure rate of over 1 in 1,000 then you can assert with extreme confidence that the manufacturer is lying. The bar for adequate data to establish statistical significance is the number of failures, not the number of units.

Individual drives are over a factor of 1,000x from establishing the requisite reliability level and thus have 0.1% of the adequate evidentiary power to establish success, but can be used to establish failure. Even a literal lifetime of human experience with zero faults is barely adequate to establish success, with even a handful of failures over a literal human lifetime being sufficient to reject the claim of a reliability level adequate for fully self driving operation outside of a testing protocol in the hands of consumers.

This is basic statistics and it is literally impossible that the people at Tesla do not know the level of evidence needed to support their claims is over a factor of 1,000x more than their auditable presented evidence. They just choose to deceive their customers to support their stock price and then blast soundbite arguments that sound good, but are intentionally deceptive, to overwhelm the discourse.