[caesil]

Polymarket odds are pretty low on this. https://polymarket.com/event/suchir-balaji-foul-play-determi... https://polymarket.com/event/arrest-in-the-suchir-balaji-cas...

The "evidence" seems pretty weak. A second autopsy that even the family's attorney admits is inconclusive... okay. Alleged "conflicts of interest" with the medical examiner... okay.

Seems very likely this guy was just depressed and his depression ended in tragedy. The motivated reasoning here from Musk, his family, and many others revolves around wanting to prove OpenAI is bad because they want OpenAI to be a bad guy they can pin this onto.

Not sure what OpenAI would possibly gain from this. It's not like LLMs being trained on pirated datasets is some sort of closely guarded secret.

[spondylosaurus]

The kind of weird, backwards consensus-making where betting market odds get used as proof for whatever fact or outcome they're betting on is... interesting.

[sss111]

How long do you think we should wait before we replace the judiciary with polymarket ;)

[cududa]

1-800-GAMBLER is available 24/7

[caesil]

Listen, if you think I'm wrong then go profit off how wrong I am. You can put your money where your mouth is anytime you want.

That people are declining to do so is, I think, revealing.

[d3nj4l]

Maybe the hard time limit is making people apprehensive. Not that I’m on the yes side, but maybe the odds would be different if the timeline was longer.

[amyames]

I’ve heard about Trial by Press.

But Trial by Polymarket is a bridge too far.