[earl]

I bet your prediction is wrong. I've expanded on it elsewhere, but fb is sitting on a couple enormous businesses.

1 - they can launch the first serious adsense ($10B/year pre tac) competitor because they see most people move about the internet on fb connect;

2 - the ad exchange (fbx) is brilliant: you can bring your 3rd party data in and run ads on fb properties. This allows everyone to reuse their retargeting / behavioral targeting data and target in a guaranteed brand safe environment. But no data leaves: fb is a data sink.

3 - adding to the above, they have real demographics for brand advertisers, so they can diversify from the dr people.

4 - adding to #2, they're even better positioned for 2nd screen. Tons of people want to connect desktop/laptop display with mobile, but fb doesn't have to do any guessing or prediction: fb knows all the data because of the shared login. Thus they'll monetize mobile better not just because they know dems, but because they can extend online 3rd party data to mobile via fbx. If nothing else, buckets of dirt cheap impressions for your targeting/bt lists.

edit: 5 - how could I forget gambling? Zynga moves into real money gambling / poker (some relevant court cases have apparently been recently decided) and fb continues to collect a 20-30% tax.