General purpose robots don’t make sense - humans are infinitely better for this purpose and way cheaper to produce.
Sure the robots could do very dangerous or tedious work that would be “inhuman”, but I would argue that for this kind of work a specialised robot will always be more efficient and way cheaper to produce.
Apart from how science fiction this all is - we can’t even produce a general purpose robot don’t make that does the most basic things like walking or picking up objects in real life (outside of special test environments)
I am not an expert, but it is unclear to me.
A specialized robot vs general purpose robot is a scale question. I.e. if the task is big enough(i.e there is need for millions of these robots) and there is enough money, than yes specialized robot is the answer. I think for small scale problem it becomes human vs vs general purpose robot. And there really it's capital investment (for robot) vs constant cashflow (for human). There will be some cost point where the human is better, but it really depends on the price.
> humans are infinitely better for this purpose and way cheaper to produce.
Most of the western world is having demographic issues. We are having trouble getting people to reproduce in sufficient numbers to keep our societies going. This is an ugly trajectory to be on because you have an increasingly big group of old people who need to be supported by an increasingly small number of young people.
I think he makes a good point about immigration. Immigration is not going to save Germany, because Germany is not an attractive destination. The only people who move to Germany are the ones who failed to get a VISA from an English speaking country, and even those will leave as soon as they gain enough experience to reapply for a VISA. The only way forward is for Germany to really invest in its own population and to retain them by giving them attractive enough opportunities.
But how do you accomplish this? Where do you get the money from? Nobody wants to invest in Germany, not even the Germans themselves. So the government tries to jump start investment, but the government is both incompetent and corrupt, so for example the German government bet on Quantum Computing instead of AI. Now the government in investing in AI, but instead of investing in LLMs they are investing in "AI for science" projects, 99% of which are complete deadends. Actually this is a sort of theme. The government funded startups are always doing some sort of "science" based product. For some reason this appeals to the founding agencies because science sounds like a solid investment. But most of these startups are either attacking a problem that is way too improbably of yielding any results, or they are projects that sound good to the uninitiated but are actually fundamentally flawed when you actually dig deep into them (like a lot of AI for science crap).
I think, if there is a way forward, it's for the government to stop trying to be a startup accelerator. They are too incompetent and corrupt for that. Instead, it should be a mediator between foreign investors and local talent. Make it attractive to build in Germany and use local talent to do that. And make sure the local talent gets competitively compensated so they do not emigrate.
I disagree. The main downside of moving to Germany - or any other EU country except Ireland - is the need to learn German (or French etc) if you want to fully participate in daily life. Other than that, the quality of life is better compared to USA. Example: EU Bluecard better than H1B and Greencard, health care, public safety, public transportation, walkable cities,... even now, I would recommend Berlin over San Fransciso - especially if you plan to start a family.
If there would be a magic pill that enabled anyone to learn a new language instantly, that would be the end of the US and UK as major immigration destinations.
Even a failed project generates high profile jobs for the duration. Which still could be years. As I understand it, the government isn't lacking profit, just opportunities for people.
>What many people don't know: The current boom in "Generative AI" using artificial neural networks has its roots in the early nineties at the Technical University of Munich, especially the "G" and the "P" and the "T" in "ChatGPT." At that time, we published "Artificial Curiosity" through what's now called "Generative Adversarial Networks" (1990, now widely used),
There will be no all-purpose robots in Germany. Lilium and Volocopter stories (both VTOL aircraft startups who run out of money) show how innovation works in Germany. Getting early stage hardware startup funded in Germany is absolutely mission impossible. Where the company in US would be raising series B round… the same company in Germany would get 50000€ from couple angel investors for 30% shares. Another source of innovation might be some university. But these are too occupied with grant hunt and crazy science, that nothing practical may come out. These all rants, but also backed up by personal experience. Plus as other commenters mentioned - software development is just not a competency in Germany. And software eats the world.
It is true that Germany (and Europe as a whole) suffers from a less than ideal investment and innovation landscape. The companies you mentioned, however, worked on products that barely make any sense. It is clear that those kinds of companies will not (and should not) survive outside of 0% interest paradigms.
The problem with that index is that each culture reacts differently to corruption. In some cultures, if a public servant buys a coffee using the company card, that's a scandal, and some of those cultures have a reputation for being corrupt.
In Germany, everyone downplays corruption for some reason. But I see it everywhere, especially in everything that had to do with public funds. But it's never called corruption, so corruption does not exist because it is never acknowledged.
The basic problem is obvious, no company in Germany would pay a fresh PhD more than 150k, even 100k would be extremely. So AI talent leaves. But this is not the whole story, the bureaucracy, regulation and so on are insane. Then you have high taxes, and especially everyone wants to tax the rich. The rich are too rich in Germany. So why should Germany try to make them richer lol?
This is like poor fighting each other with batons in the mud. The "German rich" fiscally are residents of Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, with some Dutch and Swiss plot twists. No rich has been bred from German fiscal reality in the recent decades.
Wow, given his attitudes to unemployed immigrants I can't imagine he'll have much sympathy for the people whose jobs the robots will replace. Nonetheless good article, I think he is right that it is an opportunity for Germany.
"huge opportunity in German mechanical engineering". Ha. He should compare a modern German car, with their 2-3 year warranty, to a modern chinese car such as BYD, with their 8 year warranty.
Kia is famous for their warranty AND the Kia Boys thing. The most reliable Japanese brands (Toyota, Honda, Mazda, I'd say) only offer 3 years here. Warranty seems to be a marketing thing, in the automobile world.
I can't help but think a robot smart enough for all-purpose use would turn their spare cycle thoughts towards engineering a special-purpose butter passing machine to automate their work.
The right-wing narrative scattered throughout this article is irritating.
It's also a bit laughable that Germany could stand a realistic chance to top the world's intelligent robot production - as long as we're talking about general-purpose and hence likely humanoid robots. As far as I'm aware, Germany has no history in building such robots while companies from other countries, both Asian and US, have a big head-start.
This article reads more like a more or less desperate sounding attempt to somehow save Germany's former manufacturing glory in the 21st century. Alas, without first class AI software, this isn't going to happen, and in that respect, Germany is more or less irrelevant.
His description of how German politicians have time and again failed to recognize realities and act accordingly seems spot-on, however.
> The right-wing narrative scattered throughout this article is irritating.
Without further substantiation such a claim is very low signal. What it tells me is that you think he said something bad or something you disapprove of.
The issue in Germany is that most companies don't take software seriously. They often outsource their software to freelancers or establish offshore offices in EU countries that pay less for software engineers compared to Germany or simply hire agencies. For instance, consider Volkswagen’s struggles with its EV transition. Despite this, they ultimately decided to invest in Rivian to leverage their software.
To create all-purpose robots, we must prioritize both mechanical expertise and software development. However, this mindset problem exists at the top level of management, where senior executives fail to recognize the significance of software, despite the presence of highly skilled software engineers in the country.
Notably, SAP stands out as the only German company that takes software seriously, and it holds the distinction as the largest public company in Germany.
portaouflop|1 year ago
Sure the robots could do very dangerous or tedious work that would be “inhuman”, but I would argue that for this kind of work a specialised robot will always be more efficient and way cheaper to produce.
Apart from how science fiction this all is - we can’t even produce a general purpose robot don’t make that does the most basic things like walking or picking up objects in real life (outside of special test environments)
sega_sai|1 year ago
unknown|1 year ago
[deleted]
kmmlng|1 year ago
Most of the western world is having demographic issues. We are having trouble getting people to reproduce in sufficient numbers to keep our societies going. This is an ugly trajectory to be on because you have an increasingly big group of old people who need to be supported by an increasingly small number of young people.
rkwasny|1 year ago
leviliebvin|1 year ago
But how do you accomplish this? Where do you get the money from? Nobody wants to invest in Germany, not even the Germans themselves. So the government tries to jump start investment, but the government is both incompetent and corrupt, so for example the German government bet on Quantum Computing instead of AI. Now the government in investing in AI, but instead of investing in LLMs they are investing in "AI for science" projects, 99% of which are complete deadends. Actually this is a sort of theme. The government funded startups are always doing some sort of "science" based product. For some reason this appeals to the founding agencies because science sounds like a solid investment. But most of these startups are either attacking a problem that is way too improbably of yielding any results, or they are projects that sound good to the uninitiated but are actually fundamentally flawed when you actually dig deep into them (like a lot of AI for science crap).
I think, if there is a way forward, it's for the government to stop trying to be a startup accelerator. They are too incompetent and corrupt for that. Instead, it should be a mediator between foreign investors and local talent. Make it attractive to build in Germany and use local talent to do that. And make sure the local talent gets competitively compensated so they do not emigrate.
ChemSpider|1 year ago
If there would be a magic pill that enabled anyone to learn a new language instantly, that would be the end of the US and UK as major immigration destinations.
ofheadit|1 year ago
loa_in_|1 year ago
hlynurd|1 year ago
You_again with this_again
unknown|1 year ago
[deleted]
lnsru|1 year ago
kmmlng|1 year ago
1vuio0pswjnm7|1 year ago
https://www.transparency.org/en/news/cpi-2023-highlights-ins...
Measuring corruption versus measuring perception of corruption. The former requires evidence of corruption.
leviliebvin|1 year ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CumEx-Files
The problem with that index is that each culture reacts differently to corruption. In some cultures, if a public servant buys a coffee using the company card, that's a scandal, and some of those cultures have a reputation for being corrupt. In Germany, everyone downplays corruption for some reason. But I see it everywhere, especially in everything that had to do with public funds. But it's never called corruption, so corruption does not exist because it is never acknowledged.
heisenberg1|1 year ago
lifestyleguru|1 year ago
anonymousDan|1 year ago
ReptileMan|1 year ago
yuboyt|1 year ago
kleiba|1 year ago
a-french-anon|1 year ago
geor9e|1 year ago
ozy|1 year ago
The only thing that graph shows is that China was dirt poor in 1995, and is now still only at 25-35% of USA levels.
logicchains|1 year ago
jwjameson|1 year ago
unknown|1 year ago
[deleted]
kleiba|1 year ago
It's also a bit laughable that Germany could stand a realistic chance to top the world's intelligent robot production - as long as we're talking about general-purpose and hence likely humanoid robots. As far as I'm aware, Germany has no history in building such robots while companies from other countries, both Asian and US, have a big head-start.
This article reads more like a more or less desperate sounding attempt to somehow save Germany's former manufacturing glory in the 21st century. Alas, without first class AI software, this isn't going to happen, and in that respect, Germany is more or less irrelevant.
His description of how German politicians have time and again failed to recognize realities and act accordingly seems spot-on, however.
mertbio|1 year ago
Germany was leading in the industrial robots with KUKA until they sold the company to China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KUKA
z7|1 year ago
Without further substantiation such a claim is very low signal. What it tells me is that you think he said something bad or something you disapprove of.
mertbio|1 year ago
To create all-purpose robots, we must prioritize both mechanical expertise and software development. However, this mindset problem exists at the top level of management, where senior executives fail to recognize the significance of software, despite the presence of highly skilled software engineers in the country.
Notably, SAP stands out as the only German company that takes software seriously, and it holds the distinction as the largest public company in Germany.
ofheadit|1 year ago
light_hue_1|1 year ago
lifestyleguru|1 year ago
aaron695|1 year ago
[deleted]