[ Disclaimer, I bought a 'Replicator' [1] from Makerbot so its the only one I've got 'first hand' knowledge ]
The 'hobby' ones are still very rough. Think Altair/IMSAI level of personal computer. The lack of a reasonable filler/support material (so that you can print 'voids' and later dissolve out the filler) means that a lot of obviously useful shapes are unprintable at the moment (horizontal tubes for example). But the writing is, as they say, on the wall. My instinct is that plastic printing will overtake injection molding for small run products in as few as 10 years.
The biggest challenge to robotics in the US market has been organized resistance. Ford had the most productive auto plant in the world, in Brazil, because it was mostly robotic. They tried, and failed, to get it built in the US. But the depth and length of this recession has changed the politics on that to the point where 'any' jobs trumps 'no' jobs, even if the 'any' comes with the uncomfortable reality that nobody in the new plant will be able to work without at least a solid high school diploma and 2 years of apprenticing. The 'high paying' jobs will require a four year degree in manufacturing technology.
I don't think 3D printing is going to replace injection molding any time soon, even for relatively small runs. The cycle time is just so much longer - an injection molding machine can make most parts, even quite large ones (think big plastic trashcans) in on the order of less than a minute, sometimes much less depending on the machine. That's also ignoring that the plastics you can injection mold have better mechanical properties and surface finishes, too.
Of course, true small run stuff isn't usually injection molded anyway, due to the amount of time and effort and high grade tool steel it takes to make the mold.
Where 3D printing really IS changing things is prototyping and the occasional one-off part, but we're quite far off production usage.
>Google recently announced that its Nexus Q streaming media player would be made in the U.S., and this put pressure on Apple to start following suit.
So Tim Cook announces Apple's intention to do this at the end of May, and this is somehow "following suit" when Google hadn't even announced the Nexus Q yet (June 27)?
>We can only guess. Autodesk CEO Carl Bass says that just as we have created new, higher-paying jobs in every other industrial transition, we will create a new set of industries and professions in this one.
What are average humans capable of that robots aren't?
My memory is that Apple announced a "desire" to do more manufacturing in the US. Google announced an actual product that will be built there. Not really the same thing. Someone correct me if Apple is actually sourcing anything other than semiconductors from the US for a planned product.
The whole "where is it built" thing is dumb, though. But still, if you're going to take afront, this doesn't seem like the right spot.
I've been saying this for a while. I think all manufacturing will turn local at some point, though it may take decades still. If I ran FedEx/Kinkos, I'd be researching all the best 3D printers and trying to pick winners and losers.
A while back (seems like it's been about a year) Radio Shack solicited ideas to make their stores more relevant. I suggested they install 3d printers in every store to bring hobbyists back in.
The US already has plenty of manufacturing, we make more stuff in the US right now than we ever have in the past. The thing is that we just use robots instead of people to do most of it - and 3D printing will only tend to continue this trend.
Surely if the robots are replacing people then they're not really creating jobs, just taking jobs away from the Chinese.
Sure there will be some people manning the robots, but isn't the whole point of using robots to cut down on the human workforce?
Even the robots aren't created in USA - some are Kuka robots from Germany.
Many simple products are made completely by machine yet have been coming for a long time from places like China. Sometimes it is due to the Chinese owning better machines (e.g. mills in China are generally more advance than their counterparts in America).
3D printers are probably going to be a boost for Mexico and low cost countries in Europe. That is if they get their act together.
I've seen a lot from the DIY companies and academic demos - what companies are designing this kind of production-quality cutting edge robotics and AI solutions though? I'd like to be a part of this future, but it seems like those jobs are in much shorter supply and harder to find.
I would say the jobs in 'cutting edge' robotics (no pun intended) are in surgical robots. Intuitive Surgical is growing very quickly. Proto-typing is at companies like Zmachines.
You need to realize that the personal computer market was all DIY and academic demos until Lotus 123 on the Apple came out. That filled a niche in business. When the PC came out it was supported by a 'real' company (Apple was not considered much of a company then). I would expect a similar trend in 3D printing. Some niche will open up and cause a lot of 'enterprise' money to be spent there and then one of the printer companies will jump in with the kind of product these things will evolve into. (And you'll get to complain to your grandkids about all the beige 3D printers are so boring, you remember when they were innovative and quirky)
Much of the AI stuff has been in pick and place robots (see the Japanese competition on this) and the military's use.
I seem to remember hearing some argument about why it is hard to bring manufacturing back to the US, and it had to do with the supply chain in China being vastly shorter. I'm not sure how robotics would address that. Thoughts?
For those who aren't well read (grin) a very good read looking at a dystopian future where 3d printers have displaced manufacturing is Cory Doctorow's "Makers". The Creative Commons licensed book can be downloaded from his website, craphound.com, or purchased elsewhere.
I suspect it may be one of those near-prophetic works of science fiction that will amaze future generations - "How'd he see that coming?"
the kind of jobs that would be created would be to install and maintain these robots and machines, until someone figures a way to automate that as well
Such is the fate of China also, they're just a bit further removed from it.
Automated manufacturing is vastly more reliable and higher-quality than anything manual labor can pull off. As the standard of living rises in China and cost of labor exceeds the threshold, automation will take over just like it has here.
The death of US manufacturing is a little overblown (though not entirely) - what people are really talking about when they bemoan the death of American manufacturing is the death of American manufacturing jobs.
"The wars of the future will not be fought on the battlefield or at sea. They will be fought in space, or possibly on top of a very tall mountain. In either case, most of the actual fighting will be done by small robots. And as you go forth today remember always your duty is clear: To build and maintain those robots."
But with any luck, the products of fully automated local manufacturing will be so much cheaper that humans won't need to work long hours in monotonous jobs in order to buy them.
Does anyone know of any US based consumer electronics factories set up to take small-medium sized orders from small companies...say for kickstart campaign funded products like the Ouya?
One problem for consumer goods production in europe / US is component sourcing. You will need a PCB-Fab, ICs, injection molding, ... . While you can get most (some things just arent built statesside anymore) of those things in the states, they will be more expensive and maybe not built to capacity (since they specialized on really small batches for example). In china you will have all of the suppliers down the road and pretty cheap.
From someone who worked for a large automotive supplier, which does a lot of manufacturing here in germany, that wanted to release a consumer device I heard that you can get the whole product finished in china for the price of sourcing the components in europe.
It's FAR more expensive to produce in the US, Usually between 2x-4x. I do prototyping in the US and the companies that I use also do small-medium production runs. You can find them in the Manufacturing thread I wrote.
[+] [-] ChuckMcM|13 years ago|reply
The 'hobby' ones are still very rough. Think Altair/IMSAI level of personal computer. The lack of a reasonable filler/support material (so that you can print 'voids' and later dissolve out the filler) means that a lot of obviously useful shapes are unprintable at the moment (horizontal tubes for example). But the writing is, as they say, on the wall. My instinct is that plastic printing will overtake injection molding for small run products in as few as 10 years.
The biggest challenge to robotics in the US market has been organized resistance. Ford had the most productive auto plant in the world, in Brazil, because it was mostly robotic. They tried, and failed, to get it built in the US. But the depth and length of this recession has changed the politics on that to the point where 'any' jobs trumps 'no' jobs, even if the 'any' comes with the uncomfortable reality that nobody in the new plant will be able to work without at least a solid high school diploma and 2 years of apprenticing. The 'high paying' jobs will require a four year degree in manufacturing technology.
[1] http://www.makerbot.com/docs/replicator/
[+] [-] TylerE|13 years ago|reply
Of course, true small run stuff isn't usually injection molded anyway, due to the amount of time and effort and high grade tool steel it takes to make the mold.
Where 3D printing really IS changing things is prototyping and the occasional one-off part, but we're quite far off production usage.
[+] [-] unknown|13 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] mcantelon|13 years ago|reply
So Tim Cook announces Apple's intention to do this at the end of May, and this is somehow "following suit" when Google hadn't even announced the Nexus Q yet (June 27)?
>We can only guess. Autodesk CEO Carl Bass says that just as we have created new, higher-paying jobs in every other industrial transition, we will create a new set of industries and professions in this one.
What are average humans capable of that robots aren't?
[+] [-] ajross|13 years ago|reply
The whole "where is it built" thing is dumb, though. But still, if you're going to take afront, this doesn't seem like the right spot.
[+] [-] reitzensteinm|13 years ago|reply
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and...
[+] [-] Qworg|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] consultutah|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] terryk88a|13 years ago|reply
Crickets.
[+] [-] Symmetry|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] warrenmiller|13 years ago|reply
Even the robots aren't created in USA - some are Kuka robots from Germany.
[+] [-] shimon_e|13 years ago|reply
3D printers are probably going to be a boost for Mexico and low cost countries in Europe. That is if they get their act together.
[+] [-] unknown|13 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] qntmfred|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] ChuckMcM|13 years ago|reply
You need to realize that the personal computer market was all DIY and academic demos until Lotus 123 on the Apple came out. That filled a niche in business. When the PC came out it was supported by a 'real' company (Apple was not considered much of a company then). I would expect a similar trend in 3D printing. Some niche will open up and cause a lot of 'enterprise' money to be spent there and then one of the printer companies will jump in with the kind of product these things will evolve into. (And you'll get to complain to your grandkids about all the beige 3D printers are so boring, you remember when they were innovative and quirky)
Much of the AI stuff has been in pick and place robots (see the Japanese competition on this) and the military's use.
[+] [-] Qworg|13 years ago|reply
You can see some of our stuff here: http://rec.ri.cmu.edu/
[+] [-] cadr|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] terryk88a|13 years ago|reply
I suspect it may be one of those near-prophetic works of science fiction that will amaze future generations - "How'd he see that coming?"
[+] [-] senthilnayagam|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] potatolicious|13 years ago|reply
Automated manufacturing is vastly more reliable and higher-quality than anything manual labor can pull off. As the standard of living rises in China and cost of labor exceeds the threshold, automation will take over just like it has here.
The death of US manufacturing is a little overblown (though not entirely) - what people are really talking about when they bemoan the death of American manufacturing is the death of American manufacturing jobs.
[+] [-] mattstreet|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] DanI-S|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] unknown|13 years ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] micro_cam|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] derda|13 years ago|reply
From someone who worked for a large automotive supplier, which does a lot of manufacturing here in germany, that wanted to release a consumer device I heard that you can get the whole product finished in china for the price of sourcing the components in europe.
[+] [-] curt|13 years ago|reply
[+] [-] jfoutz|13 years ago|reply