Isn't this inviting a rapprochement with the mainland?
Not trying to be over dramatic about it, but given there is a persisting strand of belief inside the Taiwanese political community that unification ON THEIR TERMS is a thing, I would think at this point an unreliable US partner, who asks your principle worldwide income stream to relocate is .. not the friend you hoped for.
The writing was on the wall when "make some of the chips onshore" happened, and now with packaging long line looping, the next logical step will be "do some of the packaging onshore" followed by "no packaging or fab from offshore"
I wonder if the US government will next ask ASML holding to also open plants inside the continental USA? if I was the EU, I would consider very hard what a response would be.
"we are witholding Novo-nordisk product from the USA until bilateral trade relationships return to normal" is unlikely I guess. as is "decent Brie will not be available in the USA for the forseeable future"
Personally I view the tariffs as a threat to get compliance. Its possible the goal is to get them to "have a brilliant idea" and invest in some American production. I don't know why but Asking Nicely never works for anything, why should international trade be any different.
Combine this with the other tariffs, killing green manufacturing and the chips act and infrastructure bills, threatening our allies, a freeze on all federal grants and loans (a couple hours ago, if you aren't keeping up), etc... how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy?
Tech is a significant portion of our market. How could destroying our ability to source the most advanced hardware and driving a wedge in between a critical ally who literally cannot concede for their national security possibly lead to anything but a lack of trust or confidence in the US, increased costs, and a shrinking market for US tech?
> how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy?
In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities.
> How could destroying our ability to source the most advanced hardware
It won't. Taiwan depends on us. They'll cave and we'll get a short-term win. What it also does is create a strategic imperative for Taiwan to balance its dependence on America. Those chickens, unfortunately, won't come home to roost for years.
Part of this might be bluffing or just for show, so we don't know if Trump will follow through on these tariffs. Though the uncertainty alone this introduces could have serious effects as companies might avoid investments that Trump could blow up at any moment.
The grant freezes are just outright insane, how bad this will get depends on how long they last. The slight silver lining is that this order might just be so extreme that it'll fail and be overturned. This is not a carefully planned attack on the impoundment control act but they just flipped the table entirely.
Your best chance is that Trump might listen to the billionaire buddies that would lose money here instead of those that just want to see the government burn.
Interestingly, it's not, which means the market doesn't believe he'll actually do it. Personally, I think they may have a very rude awakening in the near future.
Genuinely insane to the point that I don't believe he'll actually do it. I have no idea who this is for. It will certainly alienate the US tech sector that just spent the last month bending the knee to Trump. It will push Taiwan into the arms of China. I have no idea how this is remotely compatible with all the hawkish AI rhetoric. Baffling on all fronts.
As messed up as it is, he is bargaining for his enterprise. Under the table deals for him and his partners (there are many now, crypto, truth social, $djt, kushner family, these are the ones we know) where other countries negotiate the tariff down via these nasty secret exchanges.
The legacy of this administration may truly be so bad that people will be slapped by old ladies when this all over. Spit on.
ggm|1 year ago
Not trying to be over dramatic about it, but given there is a persisting strand of belief inside the Taiwanese political community that unification ON THEIR TERMS is a thing, I would think at this point an unreliable US partner, who asks your principle worldwide income stream to relocate is .. not the friend you hoped for.
The writing was on the wall when "make some of the chips onshore" happened, and now with packaging long line looping, the next logical step will be "do some of the packaging onshore" followed by "no packaging or fab from offshore"
I wonder if the US government will next ask ASML holding to also open plants inside the continental USA? if I was the EU, I would consider very hard what a response would be.
"we are witholding Novo-nordisk product from the USA until bilateral trade relationships return to normal" is unlikely I guess. as is "decent Brie will not be available in the USA for the forseeable future"
JumpCrisscross|1 year ago
ASML's supply chain is critically linked to U.S. suppliers. (EUV was jointly developed between Americans and Europeans.)
mytailorisrich|1 year ago
[deleted]
SavageBeast|1 year ago
Tadpole9181|1 year ago
Combine this with the other tariffs, killing green manufacturing and the chips act and infrastructure bills, threatening our allies, a freeze on all federal grants and loans (a couple hours ago, if you aren't keeping up), etc... how does this not result in a total collapse of the US economy?
Tech is a significant portion of our market. How could destroying our ability to source the most advanced hardware and driving a wedge in between a critical ally who literally cannot concede for their national security possibly lead to anything but a lack of trust or confidence in the US, increased costs, and a shrinking market for US tech?
JumpCrisscross|1 year ago
In the long term, it does. It's crazy to read a history of tariffs and conclude that raising tariffs on everyone, everthing and everywhere doesn't hurt you. But in the short term, that demand must be sated, and that disruption creates opportunities.
> How could destroying our ability to source the most advanced hardware
It won't. Taiwan depends on us. They'll cave and we'll get a short-term win. What it also does is create a strategic imperative for Taiwan to balance its dependence on America. Those chickens, unfortunately, won't come home to roost for years.
fabian2k|1 year ago
The grant freezes are just outright insane, how bad this will get depends on how long they last. The slight silver lining is that this order might just be so extreme that it'll fail and be overturned. This is not a carefully planned attack on the impoundment control act but they just flipped the table entirely.
Your best chance is that Trump might listen to the billionaire buddies that would lose money here instead of those that just want to see the government burn.
PeakKS|1 year ago
IAmGraydon|1 year ago
[deleted]
11thEarlOfMar|1 year ago
https://spectrum.ieee.org/tsmc-arizona
dzhiurgis|1 year ago
IAmGraydon|1 year ago
hindsightbias|1 year ago
Art of the deal, Xi must have agreed to wait until 2028.
Next, tax free repriation of that $200B Apple has buried in Ireland to fund those fabs.
k310|1 year ago
Obviously not the case here. Ahem.
abvdasker|1 year ago
bloomingkales|1 year ago
The legacy of this administration may truly be so bad that people will be slapped by old ladies when this all over. Spit on.
DemocracyFTW2|1 year ago
[deleted]