[matco11]

Can you guys explain what this would be bad for the OpenAI and Anthropic of the world?

Wasn't the story always outlined to be we build better and better models, then we eventually get to AGI, AGI works on building better and better models even faster, and we eventually get to super AGI, which can work on building better and better models even faster... Isn't "super-optimization"(in the widest sense) what we expect to happen in the long run?

[DebtDeflation]

First of all, we need to just stop talking about AGI and Superintelligence. It's a total distraction from the actual value that has already been created by AI/ML over the years and will continue to be created.

That said, you have to distinguish between "good for the field of AI, the AI industry overall, and users of AI" from "good for a couple of companies that want to be the sole provider of SOTA models and extract maximum value from everyone else to drive their own equity valuations to the moon". Deepseek is positive for the former and negative for the latter.

[sghiassy]

Because building a frontier model is expensive. But building a model as good as an existing frontier model is cheap (re: distillation).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_distillation

So the takeaway is they have no moat

[majewsky]

Link without mobile UI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_distillation

[infecto]

Beautiful and concise, much better than my word salad.

[infecto]

I believe in general the business model of building frontier models has not been fully baked out yet. Lets ignore the thought of AGI and just say models do continue to improve. In OpenAIs case they have raised lots of capital in the hopes of dominating the market. That capital pegged them at a valuation. Now you have a company with ~100 employees and supposedly a lot less capital come in a get close to OpenAIs current leading model. It has the potential to pop their balloon massively.

By releasing a lot of it opensource everyone has their hands on it. Opens the door to new companies.

Or a simple mental model, there has been this ability for third parties to get quite close to leading frontier models. The leading frontier models takes hundreds of millions of dollars and if someone is able to copy it within a years time for significantly less capital, its going to be hard game of cat and mouse.

[danhds]

If I can use LLMs for free, why would I give money to OpenAI or Anthropic?