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ThomPete | 1 year ago

Not from a non-bayesian perspective. It's what Deutsch would call a "bad explanation" i.e. it's easy to vary and thus doesn't tell us about how the sun is powered.

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kerkeslager|1 year ago

It's a bad explanation because the sun (probably) IS powered by nuclear fusion.

Deutsch is confused by this situation because he doesn't have the scientific background to understand the usefulness of negations of hypotheses.

Historically, for example, a lot of people believed the sun revolved around the earth. If we treat this as T, then ~T is "the sun does not revolve around the earth".

~T certainly lacks details, but to say it's a "bad explanation" is rather silly. Obviously it's an incomplete explanation, which is why Galileo presented a full explanation ("the earth revolves around the sun") rather than just saying, "the sun does not revolve around the earth". But in fact, "the sun does not revolve around the earth" was the part that was controversial because it was the bad explanation being presented by the church (who happened to be closer to philosophers than scientists).

Basically, Deutsch is just making a straw man argument. In Deutsch's mind, the fact that "the sun does not revolve around the earth" is an incomplete theory of heliocentrism is somehow a refutation of all science, when in fact that's simply not the sort of hypothesis scientists even explore typically.

parodysbird|1 year ago

He's talking about Bayesian philosophy of science, not science, which ultimately does not rely on Bayesian epistemology.

ThomPete|1 year ago

No the sun either is or isn't powered by nuclear fusion. There is no way of knowing whether that's the case until you can come up with a good explanation (hard to vary) everything before that is just guessing.

I can assure you Deutsch is no confused by anything in that matter and it's obvious you don't know who he is.

He is literally the guy who created quantum computation and IS a scientist.

And no that's not his argument against the the sun is revolve around the earth.

card_zero|1 year ago

He's an astrophysicist, by the way.