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TheFuzzball | 1 year ago
The entire thing is little more than a thought experiment.
> Look at how fast AI has advanced, it you just project that trend out, we'll have human-level agents by the end of the decade.
No. We won't. Scale up transformers as big as you like, this won't happen without massive advances in architecture and hardware.
I believe it is possible, but the idea it'll happen any day now, and by accident is bullshit.
This is one step from Pascal's Wager, but being presented as fact by otherwise smart people.
dsign|1 year ago
Yes. Nobody can predict the future.
> but the idea it'll happen any day now, and by accident is bullshit.
We agree on that one: it won't be sudden, and it won't be by accident.
> I believe it is possible, but the idea it'll happen any day now, and by accident is bullshit.
Exactly. Not by accident. But if you believe it's possible, then we are both doomers.
The thing is, there are forces at play that want this. It's all of us. We in society want to remove other human beings from the chain of value. I use ChatGPT today to not pay a human editor. My boss uses Suno AI to play generated music with pro-productivty slogans before Teams meetings. The moment the owners of my enterprise believe it's possible to replace their highly paid engineers with AIs, they will do it. My bosses don't need to lift a finger today to ensure that future. Other people have already imagined it, and thus, already today we have well-founded AI companies doing their best to develop the technology. Their investors see an opportunity on making highly-skilled labor cheaper, and they are dumping their money into that enterprise. Better hardware, better models, better harnesses for those models. All of that is happening at speed. I'm not counting on accidents there. If anything, I'm counting on accidents Chernobyl style that make us realize, when there is still time, if we are stepping into danger.