[gmt2027]

AI is an existential threat to tech companies not software engineers.

In many domains, the scope and complexity of software systems goes beyond the ability of a single software engineer to manage. A coordination layer becomes necessary when the number of engineers required goes beyond a threshold (say 5 or so). When the development effort must be coordinated over extended periods (say several months or years), mechanisms to raise capital and manage risk become necessary. These functions are why companies exist.

Consider that a massive increase in software engineer productivity will make coordination unnecessary for many kinds of software. In the market that opens up, companies with expensive executives, middle management and coordination inefficiencies will not be competitive. Smaller shops with a solo engineer or a team of less than 5 will outcompete larger players because their costs will be significantly lower. Massive one-size-fits-all products will be harder to justify when a small dev shop can quickly build or customise software for the unique requirements of a business or niche.

Before the CEOs stop needing engineers, engineers will stop needing CEOs and managers to coordinate their efforts and raise capital.

[logtempo]

It's a threat to many workers imo, just like autonomous machine were to the workers during the industry revolution, and later with the factories moving to China. Many people suffered from unemployment and the solution so far have been solved by creating new needs and new jobs, as well as policies such as social security.

But with the externalization of intelectual work (which happen without IA, for ex. India tech) I wonder if such solution is possible.