[dageshi]

If all it costs them were never having access to those chips again the chinese would've taken Taiwan already.

The chinese want to invade Taiwan because they think it's a rebel province, their only consideration is whether the US will oppose them militarily if they do.

[aprentic]

It's clearly not just about the chips. China didn't attack Taiwan before 1987, when TSMC was founded.

There are many disincentives. The biggest one is that China is confident that they'll get full control of Taiwan without violence.

They believe that the US is in a state of terminal decline and Europe will never overcome centuries of infighting. A significant portion of the population of Taiwan wants to reunify. They fully expect that they can just continue to nurture supporters within Taiwan and wait out the West and Taiwan will just fall into their lap.

Why would they go to war when they think they can get everything they want without war?

[palmotea]

> The chinese want to invade Taiwan because they think it's a rebel province, their only consideration is whether the US will oppose them militarily if they do.

IIRC, the US's wargaming shows that if it tries to intervene, it will lose. Taiwan is too far from the US and too close to China.

[aprentic]

Exactly.

The US has unrivaled force projection capabilities; half the worlds carrier fleets, the largest navy by tonnage, and the technology to execute unprecedented combined arms maneuvers.

China has insane defense-in-depth; more missiles than you can shake a stick at, the largest navy by number of ships, a vast arsenal of countermeasures, and a 4:1 population advantage.

China can't stand toe-to-toe with the US anywhere except the immediate vicinity of China. In that vicinity, nobody can get close if China doesn't want them to.