The past 80 years have been the most peaceful in history. Nukes work to bring peace.
The problem is that you trade the virtual certainty of periodic destructive wars for a small but non-zero chance of an utterly apocalyptic war. The big question I don't see people asking is, what probability makes this tradeoff worthwhile? One in a hundred per year? One in a thousand? One in a million? Based on what I know about how these systems work, and the history of near misses, I suspect the probability is closer to one in a hundred than one in a million.
Regardless of whether limited exchanges are possible (and how the views on their relative impossibility differ across the relevant bodies), there's a very clear downside to being the weaker party in an lopsided distribution of arsenals, as has famously been exhibited twice already.
> The past 80 years have been the most peaceful in history.
This reminds me of that mlk bit about the white liberal who "prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice"
We may be at peace, but not in terms that will hold when our grasp on power slips. Half the world wants us dead, and who can blame them? We've destroyed the world to enrich ourselves. We're not lady liberty, we're tony soprano.
The DoD is likely the most evil institution in all of history. Perhaps tied with the political parties that are its flipside. When you factor in global warming, it's undeniable.
wat10000|1 year ago
The problem is that you trade the virtual certainty of periodic destructive wars for a small but non-zero chance of an utterly apocalyptic war. The big question I don't see people asking is, what probability makes this tradeoff worthwhile? One in a hundred per year? One in a thousand? One in a million? Based on what I know about how these systems work, and the history of near misses, I suspect the probability is closer to one in a hundred than one in a million.
OgsyedIE|1 year ago
TransAtlToonz|1 year ago
This reminds me of that mlk bit about the white liberal who "prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice"
We may be at peace, but not in terms that will hold when our grasp on power slips. Half the world wants us dead, and who can blame them? We've destroyed the world to enrich ourselves. We're not lady liberty, we're tony soprano.
The DoD is likely the most evil institution in all of history. Perhaps tied with the political parties that are its flipside. When you factor in global warming, it's undeniable.
droopyEyelids|1 year ago