[philco]

This feels like an insane proposition to me, I'll explain:

1. Soaring egg prices are due to culling + deaths related to the proliferation of H5N1 (Avian Flu).

2. The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.

3. The reason we want to minimize exposure between chickens and humans is because each exposure of an infected chicken to a human is an opportunity for the virus to jump host, and adapt to better transmit amongst humans. The mutation (mammalian adaptation of the virus) can happen in the chicken before it jumps to a passing by human, or in the human once infected with the virus.

We are only a few minor adaptations away from this thing being BOTH extremely deadly AND extremely transmissible between humans. Worst case scenario. The latest strands found in Canada and now Nevada are extremely deadly, and just need the Human to Human adaptation. With enough at bats, it will have it.

The idea of dramatically increasing the number of humans exposed to sick flocks by having people start their own backyard chicken coops feels suicidal, for humanity.

The latest hospitalized patient in Georgia was exposed through a backyard flock, by the way.

[js2]

20 years ago, Thailand almost overnight got rid of backyard chicken farms:

> Perhaps the biggest and most lasting change, Auewarakul says, is that this outbreak abruptly accelerated the transition from backyard chicken farmers to large-scale industrialized poultry farms. He says this was a big cultural transition since chickens had been part of everyday life for many Thai families. [...]

> The shift to these industrialized farms has not fully eliminated avian flu in chickens, but the disease has been largely contained. With ongoing monitoring, cases are often identified early and dealt with before the virus can gain a foothold.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/06/12/g-s1-...

[VincentEvans]

Throughout entire human and chicken collective history we somehow haven’t managed to get wiped out by chicken transmitted decease - and suddenly its practically imminent and only massive mega farms can keeps us safe.

A thought occurs - perhaps it’s the mega farming that is the root of this problem and having some backyard chickens won’t really move the needle any closer to doom?

[philipov]

What has changed is the population density of humans. Disease outbreaks aren't at thing you can understand by summing all the disease vectors.

There is no needle - it only takes one case. While a megafarm may be a bigger vector, it can be quarantined, whereas everyone having backyard farms can not.

[rubidium]

Major diseases have been a part of human history throughout. There is no evidence that mega farming is making it worse.

[bagels]

The biosecurity protocols are nonexistent with most backyard coops.

[notfed]

Let's say I have a few chickens in my backyard that don't have bird flu, and we (myself or my chickens) never come into contact with any other chickens.

Aren't we safe? If not, what are the possible vectors? Is it from random birds flying in my yard? My visits to grocery stores?

[Server6]

No, you're not safe if your chickens are exposed to wild birds. If they're outside feeding on seed that other wild birds also have access to they're at risk.

[smallerize]

Other comments mentioned wild birds, but lots of animals can spread bird flu. House cats, for example.

Edit: link (gift NYT link) https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/health/cdc-bird-flu-cats-...

[throwup238]

The chickens can get sick from bird droppings, from birds that fly over your chicken run and never even come into direct contact with the flock.

[NewJazz]

Your birds could get sick from other birds. It doesn't just affect chickens. I'd exercise precautions with your birds. Both to keep them quarantined from wild birds and keep yourself and family quarantined.

[freddie_mercury]

> The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.

The reason the US has been culling is because they refuse to vaccinate chickens. Even China began vaccinations in 2004 ... over 2 decades ago.

[araes]

Perhaps that's why Chinese chicken eggs cost:

3,062 CNY/T -> $422/tonne -> $0.287/dozen @ 24 oz / dozen large eggs [1]

while US eggs are still nonsensically priced at $8.03 / dozen. [2] Like worldwide logistics doesn't even exist. Seems like a market discrepancy when there's several 100 to 1000 cargo ships transiting the Pacific currently that might be loaded with 3,062 CNY/T ($0.29/dozen) eggs.

[1] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-ch

[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us

[rapjr9]

Here's a rabbit hole to go down:

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/caring/index.html

What is a "150-day fallow"?

[zhengyi13]

I mean, it'd be absolutely awful if we started having to deal w/ autistic chickens. I can't imagine how the Chinese do it.

Sarcasm aside, if the US isn't vaccinating our birds, what are the drivers for that? Cost concerns?

[adolph]

> With enough at bats, it will have it.

viral pun

[philco]

hahah totally!

[dyauspitr]

We have a backyard flock where the run and coop are completely enclosed. So in theory they should be more protected given that no birds or critters can get into that space to give my chickens bird flu.

That being said, I have no faith in the Trump government to do the right things required to stop the spread of this and I feel like we are pretty screwed either ways.

[philco]

Unfortunately, you backyard flock is not protected. It's airborne, is suspected to be infectious up to 5km between farm sites, and also can be contracted via fomite transmission. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but your birds will likely get infected at some point in the coming 18 months, or sooner, and can be a real attack vector for something nasty for you and your family. The latest mutation across herds in Nevada/Canada both in birds and cows has a real nasty adaptation (D1.1) which has a suspected mortality rate in humans around 50%. Several hospitalizations in humans related to this specific mutation, acquired by individuals dealing with backyard flocks. The logic that your backyard flock mesh is sufficient to protect the flock and you from this pretty nasty bug isn't supported by the evidence we're seeing pan out across the country/world.

Another worrisome attack vector is cats, but that's a whole other pandoras box we'll leave alone for now.

To get an idea of how transmissible/infectious this thing is, it has jumped from birds in Asia, to dolphins in florida, and has eradicated entire populations of seals in latin america, cows, cats, ferrets, rats globally, to almost all bird populations in Antarctica. There is no species / geographic radius that will likely to unaffected. The death rate in each species may vary considerably (cows in US as an example, don't seem to die in great numbers), but it is highly transmissible even between species.

I'm sorry these aren't the best sources, but I'm in a rush and wanted to help you get an idea of what we're dealign with here in the context of your backyard flock, specifically. If you keep digging in all of the themes above you'll find even better sources:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2025-02-20/...

https://scar.org/library-data/avian-flu

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/m1218-h5n1-flu.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-024-06173-x

https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-024-06173-x

https://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/news/catastrophic-mortality-e...

[UberFly]

Your sample size of one isn't that relevant to the previous comment.

[redeeman]

yeah... people keeping chickens would be humanity committing suicide.. seems legit :) the last few thousand years of prior art might beg to differ

[schiffern]

Certainly not all humans at the same time, but yes the classical scourge diseases that have killed millions throughout history have zoonotic origins due to living closely with animals.