[foobarbaz33]

Yes I think there is a bubble. I think AI may become extremely impressive but still be limited.

A lot of tasks involve having context to produce a correct solution. AI can whip up algorithms in a vacuum. But doesn't know about the custom data format you have to import. It doesn't understand how to map that to the target schema and will blindly import in a way that is subtly wrong. It doesn't have the context provided by chit/chat and vague statements made in an email.

No matter how impressive AI works in a vacuum, the "context" heavy problems are going to be an issue. Someone mentioned "last mile", that's where things fall apart. Same with self driving, it is impressive at first, until a road is blocked and there's some poorly marked detour signs routing you through non-standard paths.

Same with a plumber. You might make a robot that can fix many plumbing problems. But there's always custom nooks and crannies you have to contort yourself into and saw off a pipe in a very specific way that only having a tons of context would let you even know where to begin.

So until AI can consume context the way humans can, it's going to be limited to a "auto completion on steroids". Which is valuable, but not the end of human developers. Only time will tell.