[Nimitz14]

NYC keeps going up while Austin has clearly reversed the upward trend. It seems you may have not looked at the graphs you linked.

[pinkmuffinere]

You're reading a lot into the wobbles in the plot, when you probably want to be looking at the total change over the last 5 years. Here's the change by city, Q4 2019 - Q4 2024:

Austin: 346 -> 510. 510/346 = 1.47

Dallas: 192-> 295. 295/192= 1.53

NYC: 203-> 318. 510/346 = 1.56

SF: 271-> 361. 510/346 = 1.33

LA: 291-> 443. 510/346 = 1.52

These numbers are all pretty close imo, clustered around 50% growth in the last 5 years. Austin in particular grew 47% over the last 5 years, for a annualized growth rate of ~8% -- that is some _crazy_ growth for real estate, when the long term average in the US is about 3% annualized. IMO SF is the only remarkable datapoint, with 33% growth -> ~6% annualized growth. Even that is still high though.

It would be easier to visualize if we can plot them all on top of each other, but I didn't find an easy way to do that.

[em500]

The problem with such calculations is that they're very sensitive to the chosen starting point: compare the growths in the most recent 3 instead of 5 years:

Austin: 502-> 510 growth: 1.6%

Dallas: 263-> 295 growth: 12.2%

NYC: 255-> 318 growth: 24.7%

SF: 349-> 361 growth: 3.4%

LA: 384-> 443 growth: 15.4%

[Nimitz14]

You're looking at the start and the end of the plots and totally ignoring what happens in between. If Austin had followed the linear trendline from Q4 2019 to Q2 2022 (increase of 22.7/Q) then it would have been at 800 in Q4 2024.

800/346=2.3

2.3 >> 1.47

That's not a wobble in the plot.