[kdavis]

Given the past week, I think “there's no real possibility of the transatlantic defence alliance suddenly completely failing” is wishful thinking.

In his last term Trump wanted to pullout of NATO[1], but “cooler heads” prevailed. Now these moderating forces are no longer members of his cabinet. So he will doubtlessly try officially, through legal means, or unofficially, by weakening NATO to the point where its guarantees are no longer believed, to withdraw.

The only real moderating force preventing official withdrawal is the “National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024”[2] which “prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval of a two-third Senate super-majority or an act of Congress”.

There is no real moderating force preventing unofficial withdrawal.

[1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/23/bolton-book-trump-nato-...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_NATO#:~:text=M...

[gnfargbl]

I do agree that the wider guarantees offered by NATO aren't now what they were, particularly for states that Trump feels shouldn't have been members in the first place. His recent comments on Poland (strong support given) followed by his subsequent comments on the Baltic states ("tough neighbourhood") show that.

My point though was on the UK/US defence relationship. This has always been a transactional arrangement, and there's benefit on both sides from it continuing.