[carlosdp]

> At some point there might be massive layoffs due to ostensibly competent AI labor coming onto the scene, perhaps because OpenAI will start heavily propagandizing that these mass layoffs must happen. It will be an overreaction/mistake. The companies that act on that will crash and burn, and will be outcompeted by companies that didn't do the stupid.

Um... I don't think companies are going to perform mass layoffs because "OpenAI said they must happen". If that were to happen it'd be because they are genuinely able to automate a ton of jobs using LLMs, which would be a bull case (not for AGI necessarily, but for the increased usefulness of LLMs)

[AlotOfReading]

I don't think LLMs need to be able to genuinely fulfill the duties of a job to replace the human. Think call center workers and insurance reviewers where the point is to meet metrics without regard for the quality of the work performed. The main thing separating those jobs from say, HR (or even programmers) is how much the company cares about the quality of the work. It's not hard to imagine a situation where misguided people try to replace large numbers of federal employees with LLMs, as an entirely hypothetical example.