[bjtitus]

I keep seeing people post the Atlanta GDP forecast without context around the short term import imbalance.

"the January surge in imports - especially for gold - caused the model to move negative. As the Atlanta Fed noted: "the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points".

Usually there would be an offsetting increase in inventories, but that is a lagging indicator. This is a short-term distortion and will balance out over the next month or so. I don't expect negative GDP in Q1." [1]

1: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/03/a-comment-on-gdpn...

[noleary]

They have published 'gold-adjusted' figures which are still qualitatively quite bad. https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1898126061184971150