[almostnormal]

Even if the EU doesn't collapse there's a non-zero risk of war though, after Russia is done with Ukraine.

[timeattack]

I highly doubt that Russia is capable or willing to get into a fullscale war with EU. It's more than 3 years into war with Ukraine without any meaningful result, but repercussions for Russia, while not fatal, still significant. There was very limited military aid for Ukraine, yet Ukranian UAVs explode in Moscow and regions almost every day. Also there's a gas pipe from Russia to EU amidst the conflict which both sides afraid to even touch. Also EU has nuclear.

[almostnormal]

Full scale is unlikely. Russia could not, but they might send 250k/year to die in Estonia. EU and Nato (with or without US) would defend. But I doubt they would go all the way through Russia to force them to stop.

Nuclear option is not likely to be used for some "minor" conflict like that, because it would go both ways quickly.