>The current market doesn’t value those skills particularly highly, but instead prioritizes a different set of skills: working in the details, pushing pace, and navigating the technology transition to foundational models / LLMs.
depends on the assumption that technology must "transition" to "foundational models / LLMs". The author doesn't seem to interrogate this assumption. In fact, most of the career malaise I've seen in my work is based on the assumption that, for one reason or another, technologists "must transition" to this new world of LLMs. I wish people would start by interrogating this bizarre backwards assumption (ie., - damn the end product! Damn the users! It must contain AI!) before framing career discussions around it.
However,
>decision-makers can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
It’s important to understand how AI will affect your field and recalibrate your position or contribution accordingly
It is a big enough change for this to be a valid question for anyone in the world today
Leaving what you’re doing and going into “AI” will likely set you up for a crypto level disaster
Vibe coding is a thing but vibe business building or job hunting isn’t! So beware of hype and know that in the end money is made by serving people and it will be equally hard with vibe coding too because the bar is higher
AI will create newer opportunities for sure but follow the opportunity, not the AI is what the sentiment here is I guess
Think about what you're asking when you tell these people to interrogate the assumption that LLM based AIs are going to be the dominant technology going forward. Hundreds of billions, the growth of the technology industry, the entire US stock market, and the global economy has been wagered on this technology. Imagine the turmoil when those in power realize the reality of what they're betting the farm on.
Exactly my thoughts reading this article.
Luckily if next few years we will have thousands of projects written using 'ai' there will be need for someone to debug and fix all of that broken software.
Or maybe not, maybe it will be cheaper to just slap another ten k8s pods to mitigate poor performance...
I do think some transitions are inevitable and not because AI must be used, but because once enough companies figure out where it genuinely improves efficiency, the competitive pressure to follow suit becomes real
This guy probly doesn't doesn't do any actual work just reads ppl like Mario Damadai who are out there claiming 90% of coding will be done by llms in next 3-6 months.
> Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs
On the contrary, here in my corner of EU nearly 60% of new jobs are frontend or full stack.
Anything else left is mostly SAP consultant or DevOps.
I think, the whole WebDev is dead end is just false lies to dissuade new entrants. Literally most successful business with a digital solution is web stuff with some automation that would otherwise be ms excel sheets shared via email.
Also this whole panic over LLM is overblown, I know of some brilliant experienced people in other professions like Electronics, Mechatronics, Aerospace, Material Science and literally all of them are finding the job market “very difficult at the moment”. It is the bad global mood in general used deceptively by opportunists to spread false fears of their LLM/AI.
At the end of the day, an insurance seller has hundreds of concerning reasons to convince you why everything is dangerous around you and you really need their product. Now apply that to AI sellers.
> Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs.
You had it going well there but then had to ruin it with a take like that.
If you’re talking about your trivial, github-filled example scenarios of frontend, sure. But then we could say the same for all other roles, including backend logic that’s regurgitated all the time.
Like with everything else, the non-trivial bits need work and skills.
> Look for work in major U.S. tech hubs like the Bay Area. Pay is better and network effects are strong, so your next job will be easier to get.
Jobs and the network effects happen all across the country. As you get older and maybe don't want the grind, or have a family, or just want a better work/life balance, this will become apparent.
Basically, always have at least two people who will support you for your next job.
Good advice in general. I would add - try to pick a skill which gives you a deep understanding in something fundamental which will always be relevant, rather than a particular shiny tech.
I would love the bay area, but unfortunately it is extremely inaccessible for me and others once you have a family. Trying to find a place to live in a good school district seems like it takes minimum $2M for a house. Renting is less long term secure when trying to maintain consistency for kids. That's not even get into earthquakes and wildfires!
Amazingly enough, I and millions of other developers have managed to find jobs outside of the Bay Area.
Personally, I’ve been finding jobs quite easily 10x since 1996 - the last 2 in 2023 and last year.
> Look at the requirements for your dream job and figure out what you need to learn to qualify.
Those jobs in the Bay Area mostly require you to “grind leetCode” and system design. They really don’t require you to know the latest frameworks, databases, Kubernetes, etc
On avoiding web dev: I get the concern, but I wouldn't write it off completely. LLMs are changing the game, but they're not replacing deep expertise in architecture, scalability, or understanding real-world business constraints
Good advice -> but is an error or blindness
> * Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs.
funny enough all the hyped YC / Bay area startups don't make as much as your typical CRUD webapp.
Devs we tend to be attracted to tech. but what makes good tech doesn't mean it's a good business. That's why your typical bay area startup depends on vc funding & will likely spend 10 years without being cash flow positive.
"decision-makers can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - Very correct. Whether or not AI actually comes for your job, the fact that enough people at the top think so is enough to cause trouble.
A non-technical friend was asking about the prospects of AI 'taking over' jobs. I told him that I'm less worried about 'Skynet' than I am about 'Slopnet', where bad takes on the applications of 'AI' just make life harder for all of us. That'll come more from decision-maker irrationality than from the tech itself.
This is the problem. Right now we're not in the, I need AI to work or get out stage. We're in the AI might completely upend reality stage.
It's just people telling stories to find bigger fools. Like the ads claiming they sell an AI employee that never needs sleep and never talks back.
Those ads are the same thing as those ads shoved in the lawn near the mcdonnalds drive through that look like they were drawn with sharpie, but are really mass printed. "Real estate investor looking for pupil, trade my money" kind of stuff.
They are purposefully looking for suckers that would overlook the sketchyness. They don't want normal people applying, that reduces the pitches effectiveness.
Exactly. It’s less about whether AI can replace certain jobs and more about the fact that companies are making decisions as if it will. That alone reshapes hiring, budgets, and job security
We are still doing scrum-like stuff after all. And they are dragging people back to the office. Decision makers have billions at their disposal to be inefficient with.
I started my own business last year that has happened to go quite well. As I’ve watched the software industry over the last year, all I can think is… “damn, what lucky timing.”
I keep looking for what you claim to be doing. I feel like reality continues to smack me in the face with “no one cares about quality”. I have tried big enterprises. I have tried 8 startups in 18 years. I watch the leaders / founders make the same mistakes over and over.
Anyway - your profile resonates with me. Would love to grab a virtual coffee if you are up for it.
The blog confused me. The author opens with senior leaders but does not distinguish between ic and managers. That is a very important difference and the way they are written is somewhat interchangeable at the start but I don’t think that’s necessarily correct.
Managers and senior ics are both facing unique challenges now. However, they are very different and don’t have a lot in common.
For me, as a senior ic, it’s having the right skills and staying afloat in this challenging environment. For the middle managers, from what I can see, it’s not being redundant as Mark Cuban recently pointed out.
I get why someone would want to tell people this, but I think it fails to be advice, as it describes the current state of affairs without much actual guidance for how to do better in it
Which, to be fair, no one really seems to be able to answer that meaningfully
The real answer is, leaders chase trends, so to keep them satisfied you need to also chase trends.
Some advises can be:
* learn prompt engineering to impress your boss and next employer
* adapt AI IDE at work, of course don’t go for cline or freemium ones, go for max expensive tier of Cursor/Windsurf/v0 etc
* Take some expensive(more the better) courses and workshops on Agentic topics, build some small projects. Justify your expenditure by citing being more well prepared for AI transition and adapting to new paradigm to strategically beat the competition businesses who will be extinct without employees with such trainings
* build some proof of concept projects to convert the smaller trivial projects to use agentic workflow. Then show these to your boss and put these up on github for future reference
* learn to train smaller models on your own internal documents, build a chat interface on top and give access to your boss(trust me, they will be blown away and will sell this to their superior)
* seed fear in your colleagues’ minds by using AI stuff where possible
Think of this AI as a new trend we must adapt to, just like FE moved from jQuery to React. Life and work goes on, just this wave nudges the complacent bunch to finally get out of their comfort zone and learn something new or get left out.
The shift in what's valued (moving from team-building and hiring prowess to sheer execution speed and adaptability) has been stark. It's also unsettling to see so many senior folks feeling -left behind- not because they lack skills, but because the rules of the game have changed so quickly...
> decision-makers can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
Feels definitely true. I wish ICs had much more agency. Wish there was something actionable even as a small step (which I don't think is there on the article).
Having been laid off due to unclear reasons, can't help but think the same could happen in my next prospective job (if I get one in this market that is) and there's nothing I could do about it.
> managers were generally evaluated in that period based on their ability to hire, retain and motivate teams. The current market doesn’t value those skills particularly highly, but instead prioritizes a different set of skills: working in the details, pushing pace, and navigating the technology transition to foundational models / LLMs. This means many members of the current crop of senior leaders are either worse at the skills they currently need to succeed, or are less motivated by those activities. Either way, they’re having less fun.
Don't geeks enjoy playing with LLMs much more than hiring or any other admin/people/meeting type interaction? They should find dealing with the new wave of AI success a lot of fun, and a lot MORE fun that governance stuff, IMHO.
Problem solving and UX are not code dependent. Non-coders and entry level folks are using these tools and confusing the output with solving a problem, a business or user problem. It has made my work more difficult to get bogged down into debates about slop that middle managers have posted and said they've done what I can do. Most of the real world integration of these things has devalued the skills of actual programmers. It's so much more than syntax and loops. It's kind of like people who think they've figured out magic tricks. Ok, but haven't you wondered why that isn't useful in any other context?
[+] [-] Zee2|11 months ago|reply
>The current market doesn’t value those skills particularly highly, but instead prioritizes a different set of skills: working in the details, pushing pace, and navigating the technology transition to foundational models / LLMs.
depends on the assumption that technology must "transition" to "foundational models / LLMs". The author doesn't seem to interrogate this assumption. In fact, most of the career malaise I've seen in my work is based on the assumption that, for one reason or another, technologists "must transition" to this new world of LLMs. I wish people would start by interrogating this bizarre backwards assumption (ie., - damn the end product! Damn the users! It must contain AI!) before framing career discussions around it.
However,
>decision-makers can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
is unfortunately painfully true.
[+] [-] r_singh|11 months ago|reply
It is a big enough change for this to be a valid question for anyone in the world today
Leaving what you’re doing and going into “AI” will likely set you up for a crypto level disaster
Vibe coding is a thing but vibe business building or job hunting isn’t! So beware of hype and know that in the end money is made by serving people and it will be equally hard with vibe coding too because the bar is higher
AI will create newer opportunities for sure but follow the opportunity, not the AI is what the sentiment here is I guess
[+] [-] Aeolun|11 months ago|reply
Neither do my senior leaders, so it might as well be true.
[+] [-] __loam|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] npodbielski|11 months ago|reply
Or maybe not, maybe it will be cheaper to just slap another ten k8s pods to mitigate poor performance...
[+] [-] zeckalpha|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] SwtCyber|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] apwell23|11 months ago|reply
"thought leaders" are a plague on working ppl.
[+] [-] AIFounder|11 months ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] tibbar|11 months ago|reply
* Try to get at least one job offer every year, even if you don't accept it.
* Look at the requirements for your dream job and figure out what you need to learn to qualify.
* Pick one skill and get very good at it. Spend an hour a day on it for a year.
* Steer away from skills like web development that are clearly getting eaten by LLMs.
* Look for work in major U.S. tech hubs like the Bay Area. Pay is better and network effects are strong, so your next job will be easier to get.
[+] [-] n_ary|11 months ago|reply
On the contrary, here in my corner of EU nearly 60% of new jobs are frontend or full stack.
Anything else left is mostly SAP consultant or DevOps.
I think, the whole WebDev is dead end is just false lies to dissuade new entrants. Literally most successful business with a digital solution is web stuff with some automation that would otherwise be ms excel sheets shared via email.
Also this whole panic over LLM is overblown, I know of some brilliant experienced people in other professions like Electronics, Mechatronics, Aerospace, Material Science and literally all of them are finding the job market “very difficult at the moment”. It is the bad global mood in general used deceptively by opportunists to spread false fears of their LLM/AI.
At the end of the day, an insurance seller has hundreds of concerning reasons to convince you why everything is dangerous around you and you really need their product. Now apply that to AI sellers.
[+] [-] sangeeth96|11 months ago|reply
You had it going well there but then had to ruin it with a take like that.
If you’re talking about your trivial, github-filled example scenarios of frontend, sure. But then we could say the same for all other roles, including backend logic that’s regurgitated all the time.
Like with everything else, the non-trivial bits need work and skills.
[+] [-] breput|11 months ago|reply
Jobs and the network effects happen all across the country. As you get older and maybe don't want the grind, or have a family, or just want a better work/life balance, this will become apparent.
Basically, always have at least two people who will support you for your next job.
[+] [-] roland35|11 months ago|reply
I would love the bay area, but unfortunately it is extremely inaccessible for me and others once you have a family. Trying to find a place to live in a good school district seems like it takes minimum $2M for a house. Renting is less long term secure when trying to maintain consistency for kids. That's not even get into earthquakes and wildfires!
[+] [-] scarface_74|11 months ago|reply
Personally, I’ve been finding jobs quite easily 10x since 1996 - the last 2 in 2023 and last year.
> Look at the requirements for your dream job and figure out what you need to learn to qualify.
Those jobs in the Bay Area mostly require you to “grind leetCode” and system design. They really don’t require you to know the latest frameworks, databases, Kubernetes, etc
[+] [-] DeathArrow|11 months ago|reply
What do you mean by web development?
Would backend qualify? Would microservices qualify?
A complex application is much more than coding.
[+] [-] SwtCyber|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] dzonga|11 months ago|reply
funny enough all the hyped YC / Bay area startups don't make as much as your typical CRUD webapp. Devs we tend to be attracted to tech. but what makes good tech doesn't mean it's a good business. That's why your typical bay area startup depends on vc funding & will likely spend 10 years without being cash flow positive.
[+] [-] AnimalMuppet|11 months ago|reply
Five years from now, ask yourself the same question.
[+] [-] gitaarik|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] rakejake|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] pjmorris|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] from-nibly|11 months ago|reply
It's just people telling stories to find bigger fools. Like the ads claiming they sell an AI employee that never needs sleep and never talks back.
Those ads are the same thing as those ads shoved in the lawn near the mcdonnalds drive through that look like they were drawn with sharpie, but are really mass printed. "Real estate investor looking for pupil, trade my money" kind of stuff.
They are purposefully looking for suckers that would overlook the sketchyness. They don't want normal people applying, that reduces the pitches effectiveness.
Only desperate people who will fall for anything.
[+] [-] faizshah|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] SwtCyber|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] nextts|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] adamtaylor_13|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] leetrout|11 months ago|reply
Anyway - your profile resonates with me. Would love to grab a virtual coffee if you are up for it.
[+] [-] iancmceachern|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] cambaceres|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] axpy906|11 months ago|reply
Managers and senior ics are both facing unique challenges now. However, they are very different and don’t have a lot in common.
For me, as a senior ic, it’s having the right skills and staying afloat in this challenging environment. For the middle managers, from what I can see, it’s not being redundant as Mark Cuban recently pointed out.
[+] [-] advael|11 months ago|reply
Which, to be fair, no one really seems to be able to answer that meaningfully
[+] [-] n_ary|11 months ago|reply
Some advises can be:
* learn prompt engineering to impress your boss and next employer
* adapt AI IDE at work, of course don’t go for cline or freemium ones, go for max expensive tier of Cursor/Windsurf/v0 etc
* Take some expensive(more the better) courses and workshops on Agentic topics, build some small projects. Justify your expenditure by citing being more well prepared for AI transition and adapting to new paradigm to strategically beat the competition businesses who will be extinct without employees with such trainings
* build some proof of concept projects to convert the smaller trivial projects to use agentic workflow. Then show these to your boss and put these up on github for future reference
* learn to train smaller models on your own internal documents, build a chat interface on top and give access to your boss(trust me, they will be blown away and will sell this to their superior)
* seed fear in your colleagues’ minds by using AI stuff where possible
Think of this AI as a new trend we must adapt to, just like FE moved from jQuery to React. Life and work goes on, just this wave nudges the complacent bunch to finally get out of their comfort zone and learn something new or get left out.
[+] [-] thor_molecules|11 months ago|reply
This resonates with me.
I find that the current crop of new tech (AI) produces a lot of cognitive dissonance for me in my day-to-day work.
Most initiatives/projects/whatever around AI seems to be of the "digging your own grave" variety - making tools to replace software engineers.
Definitely not fun.
[+] [-] SwtCyber|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] diordiderot|11 months ago|reply
There's a slim chance that frontend work runs into Jevons paradox.
Rather than churning out simpler interfaces faster, the complexity will grow.
More 3D sites, MR, etc
[+] [-] flamboyant_ride|11 months ago|reply
Feels definitely true. I wish ICs had much more agency. Wish there was something actionable even as a small step (which I don't think is there on the article).
Having been laid off due to unclear reasons, can't help but think the same could happen in my next prospective job (if I get one in this market that is) and there's nothing I could do about it.
[+] [-] unknown|11 months ago|reply
[deleted]
[+] [-] jll29|11 months ago|reply
Don't geeks enjoy playing with LLMs much more than hiring or any other admin/people/meeting type interaction? They should find dealing with the new wave of AI success a lot of fun, and a lot MORE fun that governance stuff, IMHO.
[+] [-] ogou|11 months ago|reply
[+] [-] apwell23|11 months ago|reply
uh.. which companies are these ?
Chegg?
[+] [-] hackburg|11 months ago|reply
[deleted]