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Things Are Bad at Tesla. They're About to Get Much Worse

32 points| n1b0m | 11 months ago |forbes.com

43 comments

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[+] jqpabc123|11 months ago|reply
To be such a smart guy, Musk does some really dumb stuff --- like alienating most of his customer base. Like investing billions to build an auto manufacturing academy for the Chinese --- now his primary competition.

The article highlights Tesla marketplace trouble --- but it ignores the other half of a "double whammy" that envelopes Tesla.

While Musk was busy shooting his company in the foot, investors were buying his stock like crazy. And not just the "dumb money" retail investors but also the "professional" institutional investors who do this for a living. They now hold 70% of TSLA stock.

The P/E of TSLA is around 130. The P/E of GM, Ford and Toyota are all less than 10. In other words, TSLA is outrageously overpriced --- by a factor of at least 10. If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius? I don't think so.

Tesla's stock price and Musk's business persona are dangling by a thread being held up by these "professional investors". In my opinion, out of fear for their upcoming performance bonuses.

Once this thread is cut, Musk will own one of the worst self inflicted financial disasters in the history of business.

[+] itsdrewmiller|11 months ago|reply
>If TSLA was valued like other car companies (90% of TSLA revenue is from auto sales), would Musk look like a business genius?

Yes? In that world he built tesla into only a 60 billion dollar company, along with his work at X/paypal and SpaceX. That's still incredible. (Obviously that skill hasn't transferred to government work though.)

[+] Agingcoder|11 months ago|reply
I understand his shares are collateral for his various other ventures ( and most likely personal expenses ) - a Tesla stock crash might have other consequences
[+] kreetx|11 months ago|reply
Tesla stock buyers are buying it for future promise, thus the value. The other car makers aren't innovating as much so there isn't any perceived future to pull forward and buy.

The disaster you are expecting is just your wishful thinking, if you look around the web, there is an alternate reality that says the direct opposite from you.

[+] happytoexplain|11 months ago|reply
It seems more like he simply doesn't care very much about the money side of things. I.e. he simply values what he's doing ("fixing" government, championing the current tone of the right, etc), and believes the business-side impact is worth it. He also may believe that the long-term impact isn't as bad as it seems because this all might enlarge the right-wing part of his customer base.
[+] maxglute|11 months ago|reply
IMO if Musk serious about going to mars, being mere richest 100 billionaire from wildly overhyped meme Tesla stock simply isn't enough. The smart play IS what he's doing right now... go for government power and get trillions, not just any government, but US government with trillions to extract. Of course that assumes he can secure his influence medium-long term, but dumb execution = doesn't look like he can survive next 4 years with how many enemies he's making.
[+] joejohnson|11 months ago|reply
BYD makes nicer cars at a cheaper price. The only advantage Tesla has is protectionism in the US market.
[+] A_D_E_P_T|11 months ago|reply
The US, for all its "free market" pretensions, doesn't really do capitalism very well.

What people are now seeing in China, with the rise of more than a half-dozen EV companies in competition with each other, would be impossible in the US. We've got nascent protectionism, total non-enforcement of anti-trust laws (and a very slow and very cowed judiciary,) a complex+selective regulatory environment, and industrial policies that shift with the weather. American manufacturing firms like Tesla and US Steel no longer know how to compete on the merits. And big tech, like big pharma, is a game where small firms are inevitably bought before they can possibly threaten the entrenched major players.

[+] readthenotes1|11 months ago|reply
-- “China had a plan when they let Tesla have a fully owned factory. They wanted the technology and the knowledge and experience. With that came a risk China would take that technology and build better stuff,” said shareholder Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. “That’s exactly what they’re doing. Now they’ve got really competitive vehicles, really competitive technology and the vehicles are cheaper.” --

And BYD had a leg up...

[+] politelemon|11 months ago|reply
Is there a chance BYD would be willing to share its 5 minutes battery technology with other makers? I feel that could bolster the EV market, especially where people don't have charging capabilities at home.
[+] morkalork|11 months ago|reply
You either die trying or live long enough to become the legacy car company
[+] perrohunter|11 months ago|reply
sight another mainstream article pointing how Tesla will fail, they've been against him since 2017 even before he was somebody, now his track record is undeniable and still they are painting this cynical picture. I'm tired of mainstream media.
[+] satisfice|11 months ago|reply
I’m tired of mainstream fanboys who ignore his track record of foolish behavior, and assume he is a magical being.
[+] BMc2020|11 months ago|reply
A lack of compelling new products is also a problem. Tesla’s most recent addition, Musk’s hard-edged Cybertruck that’s become a favorite target of anti-Elon vandals, has been a flop, selling about 40,000 units last year–a fifth of the annual volume Musk predicted. The vehicle has a shockingly bad record for quality, with eight recalls...
[+] rich_sasha|11 months ago|reply
> “China had a plan when they let Tesla have a fully owned factory. They wanted the technology and the knowledge and experience. With that came a risk China would take that technology and build better stuff,” said shareholder Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. “That’s exactly what they’re doing. Now they’ve got really competitive vehicles, really competitive technology and the vehicles are cheaper.”

They seem to allege that BYD somehow mushroomed on the Tesla secret sauce. But really? It seems to surpass it on all angles.

I'm sure they wouldn't be beyond IP grabbing, but let's give credit where it is due. BYD cars just seem better than Teslas, regardless of subsidies, labour costs and price comparisons.

[+] benguild|11 months ago|reply
Are TikTok users being steered to anti-Elon content as retaliation for DOGE or something?
[+] meltyness|11 months ago|reply
I definitely have heard a frazzled shift in tone from the fine folks at donation-centered talk-oriented journalism folks which I have listened to obsessively for years.

I think it's OK, if there's a lion hollering you might need some gravity and momentum to hear it and they are certainly trying to find the new polarity.

[+] stephen_g|11 months ago|reply
I’m seeing a huge upswell in organic hate for Musk over the last little while across a bunch of forums online, as well as people making jokes about him in real life (this is in Australia), and the dropping Tesla sales seem to be confirming the trend.

So the simplest explanation is not anyone ‘steering’ anything, but just that he’s absolutely trashed his own reputation outside what is a fairly narrow political persuasion internationally…

(The kind of pro-Trump style conservatism is fairly large in the US but a much smaller minority in much of the rest of the world, and of course the overlap of that and people who would buy EVs is even smaller)