[chrisan]

You imply you either would believe his word or would short nvidia yourself if he said he was. If not, why not?

[the__alchemist]

Close - If I had the degree of confidence that post implies about Nvidia being overvalued, I would take an aggressive short position.

[dagw]

I would take an aggressive short position.

Lots of very smart people have lost a lot of money by being completely right about the destination, but wrong about the path and how long it will take to get there.

[the__alchemist]

> Lots of very smart people have lost a lot of money by being completely right about the destination, but wrong about the path and how long it will take to get there.

If you make a habit of this and still lose money, then either you statistically were very unlucky, or did not have a history of being right.