[iteratethis]

This won't bring home manufacturing but let's say that it will...

The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing. I saw a video recently explaining how sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage.

Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions.

In construction, for every 5 people that retire, only 2 enter. And it's been like that for over 10 years. The people aren't there nor is the motivation.

I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though.

[forgotoldacc]

This is precisely the problem.

Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap. Unions and worker rights have been gradually chipped away at for years and now they're straight up chainsawing them. Why work a monotonous job that pays at or just slightly above minimum wage, has skills that aren't really transferable should you decide to change careers, is rough on the body and doesn't even provide proper health care or sick days to rest, and employers will call you in during natural disasters with the threat of firing you otherwise and then leave you to literally die while pretending it's not their fault when you do die? [1]

It's companies and the government saying, "We want everything, and in exchange, we'll give you nothing. And you will be happy." No American sees their kid growing up and thinks, "I hope my child will one day work long hours at a factory." People in some countries do, and it's because those jobs are a step up from the current standard. Factory jobs in the US are, in many cases, a step down and that step keeps lowering. High tech/high skilled manufacturing can be an exception, but the bulk of the jobs they're hoping to bring back aren't that.

[1] https://www.npr.org/2024/11/02/g-s1-28731/hurricane-helene-t...

[palmotea]

> Plus, even assuming there existed lots of people to fill the gap, why would they sign up for manufacturing jobs? They pay like crap.

Maybe that's just you talking from a position of relative privilege (e.g. as someone who's likely an extremely well-paid software engineer or some adjacent profession), and not really understanding other people's situation. Not everyone has a pick of the perfect career that ticks every box.

It's very well document that there are lots people bitter those manufacturing jobs got off-shored, and lots of communities that wish they'd reopen "the plant."

[cmrdporcupine]

> Why work a monotonous job that pays at or just slightly above minimum wage,

If you torpedo the economy so people have no other sources of income, raise the price of all goods, and cut of all social supports and programs, people will have no choice but to take jobs they would have turned their noises up at before.

Draining the swamp is winning!

[charlie90]

>They pay like crap.

Then raise the wages. Yes that means products get more expensive, but so be it. The economy will find a new equilibrium. White collar workers will see their purchasing power decrease, but factory workers will see it increase.

>No American sees their kid growing up and thinks, "I hope my child will one day work long hours at a factory."

Maybe its just me, but I think theres something seriously wrong with society if people have existential dread over the thought of having to produce the things they consume. If the production of it is so unethical, it shouldn't be consumed at all.

[selimthegrim]

Wow I guess that WEF quote was true but just within boundaries of USA.

[arkh]

> rough on the body and doesn't even provide proper health care or sick days to rest

That's why I'm bullish on human shaped drones controlled with full-body trackers. If you could do most physical jobs without being physically near the area you'd open them to more women (so widening the potential workforce) and improve on-the-job accidents statistics.

[danpalmer]

I heard a great story from a colleague that worked in fashion development in the UK. There's a big push for "Made in the UK" clothing and consumers associate it with quality, but the items are lower quality, because the UK lost its garment manufacturing skills 50+ years ago. Meanwhile Asia has gained those skills, so if you buy clothes from China they are likely higher quality than you'd get here and cheaper.

This is not always the case, Italy still makes high quality leather goods, Portugal is still making good shirts and trousers etc, but for the most part as economies have moved away from manufacturing into services they have lost the skills and to force manufacturing to happen there means accepting higher priced, lower quality products.

[smokel]

This has probably little to do with skill being lost, and more with how little one gets paid to do this kind of work. Skilled people can get jobs in other fields that earn a lot more.

[coderenegade]

I don't know that I agree with this. The US is too large a market to ignore, and this is effectively raising the profit margin for local production. Foreign companies will either move some portion of manufacturing to the US (for the domestic market), or cede the market completely, and I don't know that they're prepared to do that (well, maybe Chinese ones are). Factories have a long lead time, so even if this is abolished at the end of his term, they'll be locked in with sunk capital costs. The main reasons not to do this are a) abandoning the market, as mentioned, or b) you think you can hold out long enough until the political landscape changes.

If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages. Pay enough, and someone will do the job. This is especially true for low-skilled work. There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work.

And even if these jobs aren't in running these factories, they've still got to be built. Money is a powerful motivator, so I have no doubt they will. Companies will bleed because of this, but there are clear benefits for the US working class even if they're paying more. The gamble is obviously that the benefits outweigh the negatives of higher prices overall. Modern economics says no, but modern economics also believes in service-based economies, and that countries should only produce what they're good at, which, eventually, becomes a repudiation of the nation state. No country wants to buy bullets from an enemy, even if they're cheaper, and the web of infrastructure and industry necessary to maintain a defense industry mandates that at some point, you abandon the theory. Which is to say: I don't know, but I'm also skeptical that economists do.

[sebastianz]

> If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. [...] There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work.

While this might be in a theoretical and pedantic way true, sometimes you do not have the economic context to provide those larger wages, so there will technically be no "shortage" - but just because the jobs themselves will disappear.

If you look at poor countries or regions, there is garbage, dirt and dilapidation everywhere. Clearly there is - in a practical way - a need for cleaners, but by your definition there is no "shortage" - because they cannot afford to pay anything for those jobs.

[mattlondon]

> effectively raising the profit margin for local production

This is the sad thing for US consumers.

If there is now a tariff on Product X that means instead of costing 100 it will now cost 125, I will guarantee you that the price for a locally produced competitor item will be 124.99 The local producers are not going to leave 25% profit on the table.

[Tuna-Fish]

No-one will move any manufacturing because people don't expect this to last long enough for it to make sense.

The congress can remove Trump's authority to determine tariffs at any point by declaring the crisis to be over. The Republicans have a knife-edge margin in the house and the most consistent two rules in American elections are that the party with the president loses some support in the midterms and that bad economic times means that the opposition party gains.

It would take years to move production, and next congress is 20 months away. There is no world in which this ends up good for the USA. Even if you believe that this is a situation where short-term pain leads to long-term gain, there is no way this will continue long enough for that gain to ever materialize.

[foota]

> If the people aren't there, wages will rise until they show up. Most labor shortages aren't an actual shortage of labor, unless you genuinely can't produce that skillset domestically, or your labor market is so tight that no one is unemployed; rather, they're a shortage of wages

I don't know about this in the US. Sure, we're not at full employment, but I don't know how factory jobs are going to change that. My impression is that there is already a deficit in labor willing to work hard for good pay (construction, trucking, etc.,) and tightening immigration policies will make this even worse.

[iteratethis]

You say foreign companies will move manufacturing to the US or cede the market. You leave out the most likely option: everything will stay the same yet you pay more for your imports.

[Marsymars]

There probably isn't enough labour to onshore everything like you're implying.

The US currently consumes about half of its goods from domestic manufacturing. There are about 12 million people currently employed in manufacturing, and 7 million unemployed people. Matching the historical all-time low for unemployment rate would give around 4 million unemployed still.

> There is not, and never will be, a shortage of cleaners, for example, because anyone can do it, so as long as there are unemployed people and the wages are good enough, someone will do the work.

I mean, by that logic there's never a shortage of any profession. But in practice, I've seen what happens with a shortage of cleaners in a popular tourist town (my wife used to run a cleaning business) - it becomes nearly impossible to hire cleaners because everyone's salary in the area is inflated and people would rather work at an easier job. You run into persistent performance issues with your remaining cleaners - they're dishonest, simply stop showing up to work without notice, etc. You can't hire anyone from outside the area because there's no housing available other than dingy, overpriced basements. Holes get blown in the budgets of schools, hospitals, etc. because they have to contend with cleaning rates that are effectively set by the competitive market for cleaning AirBnBs.

[vv_]

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing

The core issue is that, historically, experienced workers have passed down their knowledge to new generations, ensuring a steady accumulation of expertise. However, when factories close and seasoned workers retire or move to other fields without training successors, a vast amount of valuable knowledge is lost. Rebuilding this expertise is both difficult and time-consuming. Subsidies will be required to support local production - initially yielding lower-quality or significantly more expensive goods - until the Western world relearns how to manufacture at scale.

Furthermore, if you want to build something, you likely won’t do it by hand. You’ll need machines to automate the process or enable complex material operations. Rebuilding this capability from scratch will take time, as existing manufacturers lack the necessary capacity. Additionally, similar equipment is produced much more cheaply in China, creating another challenge that must be addressed. What’s likely to happen is that Chinese manufacturers will establish companies in the United States that replicate their production facilities elsewhere (e.g. mainland China). They’ll ship in parts, and final assembly will take place in the U.S. This approach allows them to bypass trade restrictions while maintaining cost advantages. I already know of several cases where this is happening.

[bluGill]

A lot of that experience isn't needed though - automation replaced a large part of the expertise needs. I used to work at a factory, it produces as much as it ever did (though with a lot of modern innovations), but today only about 200 people work in it, compared to over 2000 in 1950. The CNC laser cutters replaced 70 people running saws with just 3.

[stefs]

> They’ll ship in parts, and final assembly will take place in the U.S.

i thought new the tariffs also applied to parts (with a few exceptions)?

[themagician]

No people, no supply chain, and no total lack of environmental regulations mean most manufacturing jobs are not coming back no matter what the tariffs are. It's not just one reason that the manufacturing jobs have left, but a conflation of reasons.

Unless… well, unless you eliminate the EPA, invade Canada and Greenland and take their raw materials, and make people so poor that they take up factory jobs again.

[codedokode]

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing.

A usual lack of high qualified low paid workers?

[porridgeraisin]

No, this is the effect for the last 50 years' usual "I will have my high paid cushy job while some other country somewhere manufactures products for me, taking on all the negative effects. Only positive effects for me. Yes, you should use our currency and take part in our inflation. Or we'll invade you. We will print 6T USD[1] in 2 years and you need to absorb that along with us."

Thankfully, this is coming to an end soon. No tears anywhere.

I know a version of this is what happens in every human age, not singling anything out, but don't get onto the moral high ground of "I am just trying to ensure everyone is well paid".

[1] additionally, 80% of all US dollars added to the supply were added in the last 5 years.

[blitzar]

People in the US dont want to work 14 hour shifts for 50c a day for some reason.

[s1artibartfast]

If that's really the case, then these tariffs are the cure.

If outsourcing labor overseas is cost prohibitive, wages will have to rise.

[lanthissa]

didnt you listen to the 70 year olds planning this? we're just going have the robots do it.

you know how people said putin was surrounded by an echo chamber and thats how he got stuck in ukraine? Thats the us now but with billionare VC's and 2nd tier 1980's NYC real estate developers. Look at their numbers and listen to them talk, they're genuinely not grounded in reality as whole group and theres no fixing that

[0x5f3759df-i]

This is basic economics that the administration refuses to understand.

Trade allows you to consume beyond your nation’s manpower and resource constraints.

And it’s even stupider when you’re putting tariffs on raw materials like Canadian lumber. So not only do we need to magically find millions of workers to work in these new factories we also need to find a bunch of lumberjacks and start cutting down our own trees? We’re at 4% unemployment, who’s going to do this work?

We literally don’t have the people to make this work.

[intermerda]

Well they can always go back to child labor like Florida is planning to - https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/25/business/florida-child-labor-...

[seydor]

Suppose you even find those workers. How are american products going to compete with cheaper chinese / european ones. People over there are used to much lower wages / purchasing power. You can look at Tesla vs BYD prices as an example

[coderenegade]

More likely the goal is for foreign companies to set up factories in the US for the domestic market. The US market is too big for most industries to ignore, and as they move manufacturing there, they skill up the US population.

Industries don't exist in isolation, and you need to be able to make simpler things in order to cultivate the know-how to make complex things. If China makes better phones, it won't be long until they make better drones. This is as much a strategic initiative as it is an economic one.

And BYD should be a wake up call that the US cannot compete in high value goods anymore.

[jccalhoun]

I recently listened to an episode of the Search Engine podcast where they showed how hard it is to manufacture something completely in the USA: https://www.searchengine.show/listen/search-engine-1/the-puz...

(Spoilers, the problem they had was that even when they found companies to manufacture their bbq scrubber, it was harder to find someone in the USA to make the parts that are used to make the parts.)

[dharmab]

Simone Giertz said on her channel her company approached multiple factories in the US, EU and China about manufacturing a product. None of the US factories even replied.

[RobKohr]

Manufacturing pays very little, and for good reason.

You are competing with sometimes slave labor in other countries. Countries with no environmental protections and with no labor laws or concern for safety.

Imagine you could open a factory in country A or B, but country B's labor and employment law makes your production cost 30% less. You'd be an idiot, and more importantly you would lose in the market if you chose country A.

But you slap a tariff on, then it changes the dynamics. It makes the higher pay and labor costs more palatable in country A.

The usA has gotten itself in a pickle. It advanced worker rights and minimum wages to the point that shipping their work overseas to countries that don't care about such things is the only rational choice.

Perhaps if pay rates go up by some percentage to bring them out of their self isolation, then this will be resolved.

[sdsd]

In real life, people are spending years looking for jobs making enough to barely survive. I should tell them about your video you saw, if only they know.

[soerxpso]

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing

I am willing to move anywhere in the US to do any manufacturing job if it means that I will be paid enough to afford a house with two bedrooms and basic living expenses. I have a bachelor's degree and have been unable to find such an arrangement. So where exactly are all of these unfilled jobs that you speak of? Are they unfilled because we don't have the people, or because they're trying to pay in peanuts? Unfilled because we don't have the people, or because HR departments are filtering away qualified resumes based on voodoo? This outlandish claim you're making that we don't want to work is offensive to a lot of people who are aware of their own existence and know that you're spouting bullshit to trick people into more wealth inequality.

Your 7 million young men aren't 'missing', you're just refusing to hire them. The jobs don't exist.

[thrance]

Can you blame the new generations for not wanting to work their asses off doing arduous manual labor, payed a minimum wage that is barely enough to afford a single room?

Republicans made work awful. I've heard some wanting to get rid of minimum wage too. Do you think this will help?

[h2zizzle]

Eh. This always gets presented as a, "Why don't Millennial/Zoomer/Alpha men want to work?" Lack of training? Maybe. But I see that as more of a subset of the actual issue, which is two-fold: work conditions and compensation. So many jobs suck, and pay less than they should, and provide no real opportunity for growth. Let's break it down:

Jobs that suck: bad hours, bad bosses, bad processes that create inefficiency and stress.

Jobs that don't pay: can't afford a house, can't afford to date/get married/have children, can't establish a stable lifestyle .

Jobs that don't allow for growth: masters don't pass along their skills, managers don't promote (and, eventually, step aside), employers push employees out with stagnation and the hoarding of opportunities for nepo-hires or outsiders.

And why are we in this situation? Essentially, because someone likes the way things are. Managers and seniors don't want to change their work styles, even if those styles are dysfunctional. Employers don't want to pay. Older workers don't want to leave, or jeopardize their marketability by training juniors.

Every young worker can tell you about their experiences with older workers who promise to train and won't, managers who promise advancement and don't, having to be in the office at an ungodly hour or the warehouse or factory late into the night. And for what? Nothing of the American Dream, at least without putting up with the more ridiculous end of the job spectrum, or having been born into money, or having been lucky enough to rub shoulders with someone born into money.

It's Japan's hikikomori problem, transposed. Japanese authorities constantly blame the shut-ins, but outside observers recognize that the problem actually lies with the "functional" side of society, and its unwillingness to confront the way it alienates and produces perfectly reasonable, if dysfunctional, responses in these men (and women).

[sounds]

> sectors like the military, construction and the automotive industry each have 100K+ positions that they are unable to fill. A return to manufacturing adds to that shortage.

Feel free to offer higher wages than the previous stagnant wages.

[trallnag]

What's up with the corresponding 7 million young women of working age?

[summerlight]

Agreed, the root of the problem is that America has relatively zero modern manufacturing infrastructure and manpower, especially compared to China. Those MAGA folks just don't know this. Offshoring happened not just because of cheaper price; China already had a much better environment even 20 years ago thanks to billions of people.

[fnord77]

> Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions.

perhaps we'll see something akin to "forced conscription", except for industrial work

[petesergeant]

> The US doesn't have the people to do the actual manufacturing ... I'm sure you'll have Apple investing in a mega plant where 50 educated people push some buttons though.

I feel like this could be used to steel-man the Trump administration's plan, though, should you want to. The best-case outcome here for America is it forces large capital investment in automated manufacturing facilities based in the US by making manufacturing that relies on cheap overseas labour expensive enough that the investment is worth it.

I'm doubtful, but, in the unlikely event it works like that, and this comes online in the next couple of years without causing a catastrophic wipeout in the mid-terms, Trump will look like a genius.

IMO it would have been much smarter to explicitly incentivize this with tax breaks and start with small tariffs that would ramp up a little bit each month, if it's the plan, and not just incoherent policy making.

[jsemrau]

>Apparently there's some 7 million young men of working age that are...missing in action. Self-isolated, gaming, addictions.

And you never wondered why that is?

[franktankbank]

The only question is how to get them employed where our economy needs them. Honestly I've worked in Manufacturing and it is fucking gnarly. Clean factories don't exist. Many of the men I worked with had some sort of mild mental disorder tending towards aggression. Constantly short serviced machines and price gouging by any contractors involved. There is a lot to figure out and before you end up with a hospitable work environment. I'm doubtful tubby mcgamesalot is going to hold down a job stamping metal parts all day getting his lunch eaten or pissed in.

[creata]

Well, if I had to guess based on my own personal experience, it's easy to simply be... forgotten. Nobody asks you to do anything, and you don't have the will to do anything of your own accord because everything you want feels hopelessly out of reach.

[AnimalMuppet]

Don't vaguepost. If you've got a point, state it.

[spamlettuce]

If there was a real labor demand shortage wouldn't there be actual wage growth though ?

[seabrookmx]

But if wages increase so does cost of manufacturing in the US, making US goods less competitive not more?

[codedokode]

Actually there are people who are ok to do physical jobs but they are getting deported now.

[DennisP]

Good thing we're deporting so many people then.

[dpedu]

If this is true, why are US wages stagnating?

[hnthrow90348765]

No one will want to do lower income jobs while the cost of living is high and continues to rise. Wear and tear on the body is also not compensated, not to mention healthcare being expensive. Meanwhile, I do CRUD apps and work remotely 20/hours a week with no bodily harm (on the contrary, I have time to work out and make bad posts on HN)

No one in their right mind is going to choose manufacturing over what I have if they can do both, and most people could honestly learn to do CRUD apps. Even if my salary were to go down by 5-10% yoy due to people moving in, I'm still in a better position for the other reasons mentioned. I'd have to be below manufacturing and blue collar wages to get me to switch.

The only sensible explanation is that they're trying to force people to have to take these jobs by crashing the globalized parts of the economy because they are obviously better than starving and dying homeless.

All this assuming that Trump isn't just intentionally trying to destroy the country.

[tootie]

The best option would be to close the gap with immigration but alas...

[AlexandrB]

Why is that the best option instead of raising wages until those jobs are attractive to domestic workers? There's this weird back and forth where people bemoan stagnating wages for the working class but at the same time cheer on importing labor that is willing to work for those stagnant wages.

In any other market, the balance of supply and demand is reflected in the price. But for the labor market the perpetual solution put forward seems to be juicing the supply side so that the price does not move up to a new equilibrium.

[jquery]

Or just free trade. Like we had...

[JimBlackwood]

The US has recently loosened laws regarding child labor. It’s how other countries produce items cheaply, why not the US?

That El Salvador prison could also come in useful.

[seanmcdirmid]

That was Florida. Child labor laws are mostly set by the states.