[Danmctree]

The numbers appear to be based on the trade deficit alone, not on any differences in import duties etc.

[throwaway2037]

That is correct. It was empircally proven here: https://www.ft.com/content/c4f9c7f6-0753-4458-840e-bcde1b74a...

To quote Alex Scaggs of FT:

    Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.

All countries tested against this theory are correct within 1-2 percent.

[floydnoel]

you can just read the methodology where they published it here: https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

[jimmySixDOF]

Now somebody factor in Services and rerun the numbers.

[credit_guy]

This is interesting. I don't know the details of Trump's tariff policy, but if this is correct, it would follow that the policy should have some mechanism to reduce the tariffs as the trade imbalance is reduced.

[matt-p]

You're right I think it's MAX(10%,(imports-exports)/imports) as a general tariff plus targeted reciprocal (in some cases, not all)