[loganmhb]

I respect the forecasting abilities of the people involved, but I have seen that report described as "astonishingly accurate" a few times and I'm not sure that's true. The narrative format lends itself somewhat to generous interpretation and it's directionally correct in a way that is reasonably impressive from 2021 (e.g. the diplomacy prediction, the prediction that compute costs could be dramatically reduced, some things gesturing towards reasoning/chain of thought) but many of the concrete predictions don't seem correct to me at all, and in general I'm not sure it captured the spiky nature of LLM competence.

I'm also struck by the extent to which the first series from 2021-2026 feels like a linear extrapolation while the second one feels like an exponential one, and I don't see an obvious justification for this.

[vonneumannstan]

Yeah funny how that works: https://149909199.v2.pressablecdn.com/wp-content/uploads/201...