[fulladder]

Not going to comment on the politics, but I'd point out that recession odds on Kalshi are currently 64% and 58% on Polymarket [1,2]. In other words, recession in 2025 is more likely than not -- though far from guaranteed.

My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run. Venture capital funds come from limited partners like pensions and endowments, and the professionals I know are all shifting away from growth stocks and into value, international and bonds. VC is already in a drought (except for AI) and now my guess is that it's going to get worse. So many VCs I know have started only in the last 15 years, so they have never seen a real recession like 2009 while working in venture.

[1] https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecssnber/recession

[2] https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025

[xnx]

Those odds must incorporate some expectations that recent actions get reversed (and quickly!). Recession is guaranteed if new rules stay in place.

[nwatson]

It's too late, these actions have shown how truly fragile and arbitrary USA policy is, and extreme anti-current-rules-based-order views are rampant in USA politics. Policy will be volatile and no multinationals or governments will want to deal with the chaos.

[biophysboy]

Reversing the actions would require either a 2/3 veto proof majority or Trump realizing he is wrong, both of which will probably take a while...

[energy123]

This is basically 1 - P(tariffs get repealed).

[ijustlovemath]

Anyone who's played cards or an MMO know those are insanely good odds -- virtually guaranteed!

[Terr_]

X-Com: Enemy Known, where you're forced to play with a certain squad leader who is always either out of Time Units, panicking, or mind-controlled, and a 99% hit chance is not really 99%.

[pinkmuffinere]

> virtually guaranteed!

I feel like you might be confused about the statement. One platform gives 58% odds, the other gives 64% odds. This is obviously high, but also very far from virtually guaranteed. In 100 trials, we’d expect recession in ~60 events. There is no secret math hidden here, it’s just that.

[NekkoDroid]

And if you play Pokemon you know anything not 100% is 50%.

[jmye]

> My thought relevant to HN is that either way this is likely to decimate venture capital and startups, at least in the short run.

Yeah, seemed like the IPOs were really getting going again, but I think that likely dries right up, too.

Unless you figured out how to materialize rare earths out of thin air, or spin up an automated factory in six months, it’s hard to imagine anyone will be looking to give you money.

[fulladder]

It's already happening. Klarna canceled their IPO. So did StubHub. I think it's a safe bet that all planned IPOs have been canceled for the time being.

[ripped_britches]

Financial markets are generally better indicators of overall sentiment than betting sites but point taken

[csomar]

The betting site did predict Trump will win the election.

[fulladder]

Actually, that's not what I've found. When I have compared betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to the implied probability of Fed rate cuts in the interest rate futures market, I have found them to match up and move in lock step with each other. (I don't work for any of these companies and I don't use the betting sites myself; just stating my observation.)

[darksaints]

Good. Silicon Valley collectively sold their souls to Saudi Arabia, and put their full weight behind Trump because that’s what Saudi Arabia wanted, and now they are gonna get what they deserve. I hope their wealth is destroyed to the point of needing to care about Social Security and Medicare.

[brailsafe]

What souls did Silicon Valley ever have, c'mon srsly