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> What if, for example, tariffs incentivize technology development that allows hydroponic wine - making previously unviable land suddenly productive?

This is a variant of the Import Substitution idea. Unfortunately, it doesn’t have a great track record. Instead of investment in innovation, sheltered industries tend to become less competitive and increasingly reliant on the shelter granted to them. Indeed, even if innovation occurs, it often becomes very hard to undo the sheltering once it’s no longer needed.

Far better to allow countries with comparative advantage in growing grapes to use their land to make wine compared to investing in hydroponics. The irony of that very example is the vertical farming sector has recently learned this very lesson and is undergoing a market realignment after hopes of improved productivity have been found to be less than expected.