[tvb12]

I'm still reading the paper, but Stephen Miran must regret writing this...

A sudden shock to tariff rates of the size proposed can result in financial market volatility. ... A second Trump Administration is likely therefore take steps to ensure large structural changes to the international tax code occur in ways that are minimally disruptive to markets and the economy

[tvb12]

I'm beginning to suspect that I've read more of this paper than anyone in the current administration has.

While President Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on the world as a whole, such a tariff is unlikely to be uniform across countries.

Oof.

Once tariffs begin increasing beyond 20% (on a broad, effective basis), they become welfare-reducing

Uh...

How can the U.S. get trading and security partners to agree to such a deal? First, there is the stick of tariffs. Second, there is the carrot of the defense umbrella and the risk of losing it.

Ukraine, Greenland, Canada... They've created so much doubt over the defense umbrella that they've really hurt their position here.