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Not on cars, not in robotics, not in commercially deployed AI, not in enterprise investments in their cloud business.

They've got immense potential, sure. But to say that they're winning is a bit far from reality. Right now, their Cloud AI offerings to the enterprise are technologically superior to anything else out there from AWS, but guess what? AWS seems to have significantly more %age sales growth in this space with their larger base compared to GCP with their smaller market share.

The same can be said across turn based chat and physical AI. OpenAI continues to be the growth leader in the consumer space and a collection of Claude + self hosted + Gemini now in the enterprise / API space.

They need to be measuring themselves on moving the needle in adoption now. I'd hate for such amazing progress to stall out in a niche.

discuss

Philpax|10 months ago

I would say they're winning with Waymo: I took a fully autonomous taxi ride in the backseat in SF, and it just worked. No other company can currently do that, despite their promises and hype.

DisjointedHunt|10 months ago

Each Waymo is > $140,000 of customized hardware and is limited to specific cities. Autonomy in commercial vehicles is arguably led by Tesla on coverage, miles driven, ready hardware, cost per mile etc. They’re going to start pushing tests on their consumer fleet, converting them to optionally commercial taxi rides soon with the fleet owner model versus the central provider model. This is scheduled for June in Austin and confirmed to be on schedule.

You can also take fully autonomous bus rides in China right now, even there, for, early reviews, the latest Tesla Autopilot blows everything else out of the water.

I’m not trying to push Tesla alone, but I’m trying to highlight the gap in adoption goals. What is Waymos ambition this year? How much can they ramp their fleet at $140k per unit versus Teslas consumer fleet and upcoming low cost robotaxi with the mass manufacturing improvements further lowering cost per unit?

stefan_|10 months ago

Winning going on what, 10 15 years now? Surely at some point they must start scaling?

At this point all I can imagine is that every year they run the numbers and arrive at "yup, still makes no sense whatsoever". And so its eternally doomed to tech demo status.