[francio445]

Using the outcome of the last head-to-head matchup as a predictor can be misleading without proper context. The time elapsed since that game matters significantly—it could be from just a few games ago or over 20 games back. In that time, both teams may have undergone considerable changes in form, strategy, injuries, rotations, or momentum.

My model accounts for each team's evolution by incorporating trends from recent performances against all opponents, not just head-to-head matchups. This includes rolling averages and exponentially weighted metrics over the last 25 games, which help capture current form, streaks, and regressions.

As a result, the most recent head-to-head result only holds substantial predictive weight if it occurred recently and aligns with both teams’ current trajectories. Otherwise, it's treated as just one small piece of a much larger picture.

[bonzini]

I understand that but I would like to know how fast you get into diminishingly returns.

Does it get it right 50% of the times, i.e. is it at least better than a coin flip? What about 60%?