[rda2]

Those rates and risks are meaningless without a baseline, as Einstein and 28 other Nobel Prize Winners may agree.

If you're familiar with the early retirement community, the simplest strategy is withdrawing a fixed percentage of your initial retirement portfolio, adjusting for inflation every year. For an 100% equities portfolio, these are the odds of success over a 30 or 60 year horizon[0] when backtested against Shiller's total real return data from 1871-2018

4%/30 year: 97%

4%/60 year: 89%

3%/30 year: 100%

3%/60 year: 100%

Hence my comment about spending a little less or saving more - 4% to 3% makes a massive difference in success rates. I'm sure you've done some backtesting of your offerings, and hopefully would be able to share some withdrawal amount vs success rate comparison, even if it's not an identical time period/comparison.

[0]https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/14/the-ultimate-guide...

[rundmc]

You will enjoy playing with this then:

https://tontine.com/lifetime-income-calculator/#tontinator

I look forward to your thoughts

[rda2]

I mean, this just appears to be fixed nominal returns, minus a fee, multiplied by a factor from an actuarial table.

Contrast it with a calculator like this [0] that uses combines historical return and inflation data with actuarial data to show the variance of outcomes, not just average returns.

For instance, your calculator shows a scenario of investing in bitcoin and withdrawing >20% of your portfolio every year which makes zero sense once you account for variance of returns.

I like the idea of tontines, I'm glad someone is trying to bring them back, and I don't doubt that your product could help with longevity risk, but I haven't seen anything so far that actually shows that.

I'd like to see actual results from backtesting, or a prediction that takes risk into account, not just a fixed return.

[0]https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/