[thomquaid]

Nonsense. Trump led in every swing state prior to election in aggregate poll analysis. Each swing state may have had an outlier Harris poll, but to say no polls existed with Trump leading is definitely incorrect. There were no surprise state outcomes at all in 2024, and the election was effectively over by 9pm Eastern time. Maybe you mean some kind of popular vote poll nationally, but that isnt how the US votes and also doesnt represent 'all polls'. I checked RCP archives and they show 7 polls for Harris leading nationally, and 10 polls for Harris losing nationally.

And let us not forget Harris was only even a candidate for 3 months. How Harris even makes it into the training window without Trump '24 result is already amazingly unlikely.

[TheOtherHobbes]

Absolutely untrue. Aggregate polling had a range of outcomes. None of the aggregators predicted a complete sweep.

https://www.statista.com/chart/33390/polling-aggregators-swi...

[ceejayoz]

The aggregators don't predict anything.

They tell you the average of reputable polls. In this case, they were well within the margin of error; each aggregator will have called it something like a "tossup" or "leans x".

"Harris by 0.8%" does not mean "we predict Harris wins this state".