[comeonbro]

As a record of how likely people considered this outcome:

Prevost was hovering around 1% on Polymarket, and was <0.5% between white smoke and announcement.

[TechDebtDevin]

Yes, but how much liquidity was available?

[jowea]

Well, seems that conclaves really are notoriously unpredictable

[aidenn0]

At least for recently, it's almost always someone on the short list, but often not near the top of that list.

[kylehotchkiss]

"people" "Polymarket"

How many non-technical people are on polymarket? That seems like a poor sample size.

[pie_flavor]

One of two things must be true: Either Polymarket's more accurate than you are, or you can make free money.

[oytis]

Sounds like an amazing opportunity for insider trading

[bowsamic]

I wouldn't be shocked if that's one of the reasons why they sequester

[Onavo]

Isn't the max profit limited by counterparty liquidity? Polymarket won't pay out anything extra.

[andrepd]

Among the most unlikely papabile I would have preferred someone like Tolentino.