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tmiku | 9 months ago

It's worth nothing that it takes less money than you may expect to significantly shift a prediction market's trading price. This article, while its tone aged poorly with the relevant election results, covers the math behind this quite well.

https://quantian.substack.com/p/market-prices-are-not-probab...

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john-h-k|9 months ago

> This article, while its tone aged poorly with the relevant election results,

While I get your point, it’s critical to recognise that betting 90% on a six being rolled doesn’t make you correct when a six is rolled. You can believe polymarket was truly mispriced even with this outcome