[matheusd]

> I don’t think they can yet self improve exponentially without human intuition yet

I agree: if they could, they would be doing it already.

Case in point: one of the first things done once ChatGPT started getting popular was "auto-gpt"; roughly, let it loose and see what happens.

The same thing will happen to any accessible model in the future. Someone, somewhere will ask it to self-improve/make as much money as possible, with as little leashes as possible. Maybe even the labs themselves do that, as part of their post-training ops for new models.

Therefore, we can assume that if the existing models _could_ be doing that, they _would_ be doing that.

That doesn't say anything about new models released 6 months or 2 years from now.

[__loam]

People in the industry have been saying 6 months to agi for 3 years.

[glenstein]

They had been saying it was 10 years away for ~50 years, so that's progress. Soon it will be 1 month away, for another two years. And when they say it's really here for real, there will still be a year of waiting.

[QuantumGood]

The old rule for slow-moving tech (by current AI standards) was that any predictions over 4 years away ("in five years...") might as well be infinity. Now it seems with AI that the new rule is any prediction over five months away ("In 6 months...") is infinitely unknowable. In both cases there can be too much unexpected change, and too many expected improvements can stall.

[tim333]

I presume you are exaggerating - has any named person actually said 6 months?

[vjvjvjvjghv]

Nobody knows what AGI really means. Are all humans AGI?

[ninetyninenine]

They said that for self driving cars for over 10 years.

10 years later we now have self driving cars. It’s the same shit with LLMs.

People will be bitching and complaining about how all the industry people are wrong and making over optimistic estimates and the people will be right. But give it 10 years and see what happens.

[owebmaster]

Google is already AGI and it will fight hard against the DoJ proposed break-up, and it will probably win.

[Disposal8433]

Asimov talked about AI 70 years ago. I don't believe we will ever have AI on speedy calculators like Intel CPUs. It makes no sense with the technology that we have.