[jfinnery]

Pretty sure enough (doesn't need to be a high proportion of them, really) office workers can re-train as e.g. locksmiths or plumbers fast enough if the money is really there that a substantial bump from this effect will be short-lived.

Hell, I'd kinda rather do something like that, if the money were as good, and I'm already reasonably handy. Pretty sure I'm far from alone, and again, it only needs to be a few percent of laid-off office workers able & willing to train into blue collar jobs to flatten any price spike.

The idea that anyone but capital's going to benefit from this, if any of it plays out the way AI-maximalists think (separately, I think that's mostly BS, but do think this is going to provide the activation energy for another wave of off-shoring instead of hiring back US workers when the AI tools prove inadequate) seems so naïve that it's hard not to read it as deliberate propaganda.

[almosthere]

The funny thing about the story is that the tradesmen that show up with an investment property isn't doing that well either. Even though in the story the locksmith asks for $750 - he's only taking home $25-35/hour. The check/card is for the company he works for. And that money will be paying his salary for a few days until the next uber expensive lockout.

In no reality is someone going lock-out to lock-out making $750 for themselves. That business, like software, is also captured. Captured by capital in advertising no individual can match.

It's just like a BTC miner. Very few people on HN will go out and buy a BTC miner box hoping to get 1 BTC in a few days - the competition is maximized to a point where each earned BTC just barely paid for all the upgrades. The fact is, that most of the BTC is mined in China and so it's just a giant siphon of money.

[pavel_lishin]

I think a lot of us software engineers dream about having a job where we work with our hands, and plumbing and woodworking seem to be especially common dreams.

But if you talk to a plumber, you'll quickly learn that while it's a respectable job that can earn you a good wage, it's also hard on the body, and often wildly unpleasant. And that's before you get to the fact that you're often your own boss, which means dealing with disgruntled or difficult customers, sometimes while you're also doing the physically uncomfortable and unpleasant task.

Imagine dealing with someone yelling at you for doing something or being too expensive wrong while you're elbow-deep in literal shit.

[jfinnery]

From observing the career trajectories of the tradespeople I've known who likely match or out-earn me, yes, the ideal (and, from what I can tell, not terribly unachievable[1]) path is to be running a crew (or two... or three...) with your name on the truck(s) no later than age 35.

That does mean the job becomes management, sales, and customer relations, but it's management, sales, and customer relations for a trade you know well, which (this is my speculation here) makes it a bit easier to swallow than doing the same thing at office-bound bigco for some product you were only introduced to last week.

[1] I suspect, from also observing the crews themselves, that it's achievable because it's relatively easy for someone with a decent head on their shoulders, who speaks good English, and with the ability to show up almost all the time and to not come off as a flaky meth addict or lazy scam artist when talking to customers, to move up very fast in the trades...

[EDIT] In fact, in the linked story, it appears the locksmith's early-retirement-from-locksmithing plan might be to become a landlord. Also a fairly solid plan, and another that I've seen tradespeople follow—they have an advantage because they can achieve better results with less money on property maintenance, between their own skills, their connections, and having insight into what a good price and good work look like in other trades.