[zild3d]

> the US. Getting dragged into an Israeli war

A lot of people saying this, what would this actually entail? My money is much more on this being a "1 and done" exchange. Iran poses very little threat now, launchers being taken out everyday, leadership chain wiped out, seemingly no other Iran allies getting pulled into the fold

[mjburgess]

Iran has a population of 92mil and an economy vastly stronger than iraq 2003 -- it also has extremely motivated backers in China, who are eagar to use it the way the US uses Ukraine: a means to deplete a peer competitor of their military resources. The best outcome for China here is the US blowing its assets in Iran.

The propaganda at the moment is israel is winning, iran isnt using missiles because of "air superiority", and the US is able and willing to detroy the nuclear capacity via the air. All of these claims are false. Iran's capacity to strike back remains vast using only its own resources.

What the US has been dragged into by israel is an amazing opportunity for a US peer competitor (china) to grind down its arms -- it would be remarkable if China doesn't take it. It can hardly afford the US to be a well-armed protector of Taiwan.

The iranian regieme's apparent hesitation at the moment is not as extreme as russia's on the first days of the ukraine war, and look at where we are now. This apparent hesitation is waiting for israel to deplete its missile defense, waiting for a more stable intelligence environment (presumably moving assets, etc. around out of uncovered israeli operations), and most of all, waiting for a moment to strike off-guard.

[whynotminot]

The bombs used were literally designed for Iran. They deplete no real capability that matters anywhere else the US is meaningfully engaged.

If the US had lost a B2 during the operation, then sure, that would be a major loss. But as far as I can tell we did not.

[Invictus0]

We dropped a dozen highly specialized bombs in a single, closed-end operation, and you're arguing that this meaningfully depleted the USAF magazine enough to move the needle on a conflict in Taiwan?

[bamboozled]

The propaganda

What propaganda ? I’ve seen the footage of Iran firing flak cannons somewhere in the direction of f35s. Not a single Israeli plane has been lost…where is the lie ?

Iran has a population of 92mil and an economy vastly stronger than iraq 2003* why assume they want the current leadership to remain in charge? Why assume they wanted nukes ?

You mention China grinding down its enemy ? What about the fact the air force is actually performing real missions being and gaining real experience ? Is a few bunker busters going to grind down the USAF ?

[foobarian]

I wonder if the regime is holding back so as to not piss off the remaining JCPOA signatories. They only have until October [1], and after that it's not clear if they can agree on a renewed set of sanctions.

[1] https://iranwire.com/en/politics/136431-how-the-snapback-mec...

[blindriver]

> All of these claims are false.

Source please.

[floatrock]

> Iran poses very little threat now, launchers being taken out everyday

What do Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Dubai have in common?

All of their oil tankers sail through a 20mi strip of water called the Straight of Hormuz, completely bordered by Iran on one side. Saudi Arabia has access to the Red Sea and a bunch of pipelines to take some of their oil there, but most of their maritime ports are in the Persian Gulf.

You don't need hypersonic ballistic missiles to take out an oil tanker. Save those for Israel, all you need is a few drones, speedboats, and mines.

Oh, what's that, a good chunk of attack drones undergoing "field trials" in Ukranian population centers are Iranian-made purchased by Russia? And those drones are designed to be launched from mobile trucks in any non-descript garage instead of static missile silos?

We've seen what a rag-tag group of Yemeni rebels with some light rockets have done to ocean shipping at the chokepoint to the Red Sea, now we're gonna see what the people supplying the Houthi's can do at the chokepoint to the Oil Sea.

Hope y'all enjoyed your sub-$2 gas prices.

[pimeys]

Bingo.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-urges-china-dissuade-...

WASHINGTON, June 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called on China to encourage Iran to not shut down the Strait of Hormuz after Washington carried out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Rubio's comments on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo" show came after Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows.

[tguvot]

houthis been using iran supplied anti ship missiles. not exactly stuff that you pickup in bass pro shops

[diggan]

> My money is much more on this being a "1 and done" exchange

For as long as I've been alive, every action from the US in the middle east been a "1 and done" exchange, and Bush famously hosted a "Mission Accomplished" party two months after the start of the invasion of Iraq.

I'd be surprised if this was the only action from the US' side during this war, based on history, but maybe things are different today, seems highly unlikely though.

[burnt-resistor]

This. The Iran "nuclear" thing is Iraq "WMDs" MacGuffins all over again, but it's the saber rattling Netanyahu is using to maintain popular and power, and Trump is going along for it, imperiling America's security for decades by asking for more terror attacks in the homeland.

[Panoramix]

Reports are that if Iran keeps things going on, Israel is going to run out of interceptors in 10 days or so, at which point they are gonna be seriously damaged. Some missiles are already getting through, there's speculation of hyper-sonic missiles from Iran or just failure to shoot them down.

Either way: This doesn't stop here, and it was never about these bogus nuclear weapons (which are just around the corner since the 80's) just like Iraq was not about weapons of mass destruction. They want to place a puppet government...what could go wrong?

[MF-DOOM]

This isn’t accurate. The thing that’s going to possibly be depleted is “Arrow 3” - the first line of aerial defense (excluding operations that target the launchers within Iran). They still have plenty of Arrow 2 and David’s’ slingshot missiles.

[Beefin]

this couldn't be more false - jordan and saudi have been shooting down iranian drones. you think america/israel is alone in this dogfight?

[sanderjd]

This episode has demonstrated that diplomacy is not a credible option. So with that off the table, the only two options now are 1. A series of "1 and done" engagements every few years or months, as the regime tries to race toward a bomb, or 2. Regime change.

It's possible that #2 will happen via domestic uprising, but not at all clear whether the result of that would be a friendlier regime that is less interested in going nuclear. It could very plausibly instead be hardliners who are pissed the regime failed to put up a strong enough fight. (I think that would be what would predictably happen in the US in this scenario, for instance!)

And if it's not a domestic uprising, it's a bloody regime change war like the ones fought in the 00s, which ... didn't turn out great, if you recall!

Possibly #1 is a better outcome. But I'm very skeptical that "we'll just bomb a big country periodically" is a strategy that will never escalate into protracted war.

[LeonB]

Chance of Iran launching a nuclear strike on the US has gone from 0% to 0%.

Chance of terrorist activity on US soil in the next 10 years has increased.

I don’t think it’s improved things for the US.

[umbra07]

They could have nuked a neighboring country.

Neighboring countries like KSA have openly declared their intention to get nukes.

They could give the nuke to a proxy (or have it stolen) who then detonates it either at a US military base in the region or on US soil.

[karmakurtisaani]

This only happens if Iran sits there and takes it. What if they close the strait? Or shoot missiles to US bases?

[infecto]

I have mixed feelings about the current state but is that a legitimate question. I imagine Iran would fire once on the US and then all heck would reign down on them from the skies. I don’t see a situation where Iran can hold on. Most of the people do not support the government.

[EasyMark]

Unless they find the location of the moved highly enriched uranium, there may be a few follow up bombings to handle that but I suspect Israel would take that on.

[burnt-resistor]

You missed the point: this was entirely for show, may not have accomplished any or all of the mission objectives claimed, and, in all likelihood, setup thousands of American civilians for a series of 9/11-like terrorist attacks for the next 20 years. The reality show circus continues.

[UncleMeat]

Trump is already screaming online about regime change. Your money might be at risk.