[MediumD]

While I think it’s good advice to live as if the equity is worth zero, treating all equity as if its worth nothing, seems a bit over-reductionist when equity packages can routinely be worth millions of dollars.

Obviously it’s a crapshoot and should never be seen as a guarantee, I think treating it as zero is bit too far on the opposite extreme.

[stuckonempty]

How did you get to equity packages being “routinely” worth millions when tech startups fail somewhere between 75% and >99% of the time (depending on estimates)?

Seems far more likely that startup equity will be worth zero to typical individual contributor employees, not millions

[mhlakhani]

Case in point: 2 years ago i interviewed at a number of places with mind boggling valuations and most of the places I got offers from either no longer exist or laid off half their staff. It’s a lottery

[virgilp]

By your own measure, if startups fail 99% of the time, shouldn't one value a $1M equity as $10k bonus? "Zero" does seem extreme, agree with the sentiment that "it's less than you think" but if you get lot of equity in a series-C startup, I wouldn't say that's equivalent to 0.

[MediumD]

Of course most startups fail, and most equity is worth nothing.

I guess I didn’t think “routinely” implied a specific percentage, just that it isn’t uncommon for options to be worth a lot.

If even 5–10% of VC startups succeed, then it’s still worth considering the expected value of the equity when comparing job offers.