[weepinbell]

I really like your point about rent growth. I quickly grabbed numbers from FRED on rent growth in the same period as analyzed in this blog:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Kion

And then computed the annualized percentiles of growth over every 10 and 20 year period:

Percentiles 10 Year 20 Year

0.1 2.759994509 2.955813986

0.2 2.857204716 3.026836408

0.3 2.990680184 3.126358739

0.4 3.127881625 3.147020404

0.5 3.199826901 3.269223125

0.6 3.418119435 3.360219255

0.7 3.558537072 3.523213118

0.8 4.20459087 3.876319675

0.9 5.606452092 4.488515605

1 6.820735567 4.991026738

You're definitely right that they underestimate rent growth, at least if you're assuming that you should be making conservative estimates. Plugging some of these numbers in, I don't think this changes the overall conclusion of the post, but it does change the magnitude non-trivially so I think it's very worth considering. Thank you!