[entropi]

Agreed, and I suspect the explanation is that these plays are done not to search for a true AGI, but to drive up hype (and 'the line').

[aspenmayer]

The higher the line goes, the higher the expected value of return on investment. It’s a virtuous cycle based on a bet on all horses, but since the EV is so high for first mover advantage for AGI, it might be worth it to overleverage compared to the past for your top picks? These are still small sums for Zuckerberg to pay personally, let alone for Meta to pay. This is already priced in.

[entropi]

There are quite a few assumptions in your message. But here is, I think, the most crucial one:

> but since the EV is so high for first mover advantage for AGI

is it? why? I cant see why this should be the case. where exactly do you think the "moat" for AGI will come from?