[hraedon]

"Working" is a pretty generous description of a policy that, at a cost of 3-4% of GDP, has raised the fertility rate from its low of 1.23 in 2011 to about 1.55 today. That 1.5ish TFR is pretty stable, too: there's been almost no improvement since 2016.

No country has figured this out, and if getting to (just!) replacement rate requires healthcare-like expenditures as a % of GDP, it is genuinely unclear to me how we do that on a global scale.

[drewhk]

Not it is not stable, it was 1.38 last year (source, from the central statistics authority: https://www.ksh.hu/stadat_files/nep/hu/nep0006.html). This year will be even worse, see top left chart: https://www.ksh.hu/heti-monitor/nepmozgalom.html (live births per month)

(edit: added translation of unit)

[missedthecue]

It's pretty clear theyre going to drop below their 2011 baseline soon. In other words, 5% of GDP into pronatal policies and transfers will have at best delayed the inevitable drop by a couple years.

[slaw]

Neighbour countries are at 1.0x TFR, so that policy is quite effective.