top | item 44676501

(no title)

stevenAthompson | 7 months ago

Has anyone backtested a stock bot that just shorts every company doing RTO? It's clearly a leading indicator for company collapse.

discuss

order

generic92034|7 months ago

> It's clearly a leading indicator for company collapse.

So, Amazon, Apple, ... are close to collapse?

mschuster91|7 months ago

Creatively? Yes, definitely, at least for Amazon. IMHO, for that company there is an internal battle what they want to be: a webshop filled with garbage or a cloud hyperscaler? The way the web shop is degrading, I strongly assume that Amazon will attempt to exit that business sooner or later.

As for Apple, I do love their hardware, but the software side has seen better days.

mapontosevenths|7 months ago

I was being hyerbolic. I should have made that clearer. That said, there is a nugget of literal truth to my statement.

Market reactions are typically neutral to RTO announcements, which confounds some analysts who imagine that RTO adds some kind of value. However, studies have repeatedly shown that while the short-term impact of RTO is neutral these companies typically fair worse than peer companies over longer timeframes. To make it worse for the analysts, similar studies have also shown that companies which do embrace remote first work have outsized returns. Some estimates show that fully WFH organizations bring in about 7.5% higher annual returns on average than peer organizations that RTO.

Leaders continue to ignore the ever growing piles of evidence in favor of those analysts "common sense", and forget that "common sense" is just a laymans term for what scientists refer to as "making shit up."

Those same executives are most tempted to fall into this trap during times of duress, because being perceived as "doing something" is more important than long term impact on share price.