The strangest part to me about the current trends: why do all these business leaders all do the same things at the same time? E.g. Layoffs + micromanagement + cost focus etc... Is this truly about macroeconomic forces that every business is responding to? Or is it just following the latest fad?There seems to be significant opportunity to zig as others zag. Imagine the Intel letter saying "we are going to take advantage of the current hiring environment to scoop up talent, and push forward on initiatives."
inetknght|7 months ago
I thought about this a lot over the years.
I saw something that piqued my interest last year though, and kind've helped connect the dots. I was on a cruise, and most of the ship was available to guests. One day, one room was cordoned off to an invite-only meeting. The windows weren't blocked, but on the screen was a presentation about AI investments, number of jobs saved (reduced), and etc.
I found one of the attendants later during the voyage and chatted her up. She was head of HR in some big company, and the meeting was supposed to be private. But it contained a lot more than just spreadsheets about AI investments. There was homework and whatnot, but the attendees weren't all from a single company. It was "direction setting". I don't think it was Intel (topic under discussion) but certainly some loosely related tech industry.
I'm convinced that it was nothing less than business collusion.
So, back to your question:
> why do all these business leaders all do the same things at the same time?
Because they're told to.
michaelt|7 months ago
Are you sure you didn't just see a sales meeting?
If you're a farmer in the market for a $200k combine harvester, sales guys will be happy to put you in a $200-a-night hotel so you can attend their invite-only presentation on how their latest models give you 10% more yield with 30% lower labour cost thanks to the new auto-steer mechanism and six-stage threshing mechanism. And they'll hand-hold you through all the calculations to write a business case.
dstroot|7 months ago
DragonStrength|7 months ago
https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Order-Economists-Invented-Aus...
fzeroracer|7 months ago
It's all the more reason why labor needs to start being more aggressive and properly work together.
firecall|7 months ago
> Because they're told to.
This is largely it.
Consultants rule the earth!
alecco|7 months ago
Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street.
pyuser583|7 months ago
I’ve been involved on layoff planning. It can be very cloak and dagger. But you never involve competitors. Ever.
lumost|7 months ago
The incentives to collude are powerful.
mathgeek|7 months ago
Wonder if it’s “not illegal” if it’s done in international waters.
jdlshore|7 months ago
No conspiracy theories are needed. Boards are incestious, most board members aren’t all that bright or forward looking, they have a lot of imposter syndrome about it, they worry about getting important trends wrong, and so they follow the herd. CEOs follow the board, companies follow the CEO, voila, everybody does the same thing at the same time.
And yes, I think there is an opportunity to zig while everyone else is zagging.
Also: major institutional investors (such as VCs) demand a seat on the board and then send their B team to actually sit through the board meetings of their less key investments. Those board members follow the investor company’s line, spreading it to lots of companies at once.
wahnfrieden|7 months ago
mandeepj|7 months ago
They all work with restructuring companies!! So, I hope that tells you how smart they are :-)
figassis|7 months ago
saubeidl|7 months ago
Meanwhile, a lot of laborers in our profession have fallen for their propaganda of markets and so-called meritocracy, not realizing they have more in common with the fruit picker than their common exploiter.
Class warfare is real. It's time tech workers wake up to that fact and start fighting back instead of letting oligarchs walk over them.
aeon_ai|7 months ago
Labor categorization can be thought of in a more useful framework -- Category 1: Builders who don't know it yet. These people have the cognitive capability, work ethic, and problem-solving skills to create value independently, but they've been socialized to believe employment is the only viable path, or have yet to take the leap of starting "their own thing". They're retained and developed because they're essentially entrepreneurs who haven't discovered their own agency yet. Category 2: Consumers masquerading as producers. They extract more value than they create - through entitlement, minimal effort, or misaligned incentives. They're often the loudest about "worker rights" precisely because they have the most to lose from merit-based evaluation.
The pattern you're seeing (layoffs + micromanagement + cost focus) targets Category 2 while trying to retain Category 1. The economy can no longer subsidize low-value labor.
The interesting dynamic: Category 2 workers are often most vocal about collective action because individual performance evaluation threatens their position. Category 1 workers are more likely to focus on skill development and value creation, and frankly are the most to benefit from the evolution of AI tooling.
"Labor solidarity" messaging often fails to resonate with the most effective and productive workers.
jrk|7 months ago
mbac32768|7 months ago
unknown|7 months ago
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ryandrake|7 months ago
thbb123|7 months ago
Just keep smooth talking everyone into cost reductions and make arbitrary decisions to make it feel like you're actually in charge.
zeroCalories|7 months ago
DaveZale|7 months ago
The letter seemed contradictory: be a factory, but innovate on AI. Is AI actually smart? Human brains use the power of a dim incandescent light bulb, why does AI require so much power, that the processing chips overheat?
Sure, selected tasks can be done orders of magnitude faster, but do we, for example, really need that kind of output, like pi to a trillion digits? Or AI controlling stock market trading? How much liquidity is necessary for traders other than huge funds?
jofla_net|7 months ago
akra|7 months ago
Yes an AI will come up with more insight than many management people as many people state in this thread that a LLM can do their job. Its a mistake to assume that's what they are paid for however.
supportengineer|7 months ago
breppp|7 months ago
codingwagie|7 months ago
matt-p|7 months ago
teeray|7 months ago
Ah, see? Prosperity has not come to your business because you have not made the proper offerings to the new AI gods.
SL61|7 months ago
A sensible, sober CEO would still need a lot of political capital to push back against a boardroom that's hounding them to jump on the latest hype train. You certainly won't get that from a CEO who just took that position a few months ago.
A sensible, sober boardroom that doesn't push their execs to jump on the hype train would need to answer to angry shareholders. It's almost certain that >50% will support the latest fad and would vote out a board that they perceive as being behind the times.
That's where startups and privately owned companies get their natural advantage of being able to go against the grain.
sokoloff|7 months ago
I've pitched that a couple times in my career. The difficulty is that, in a lot of cases, your future business prospects are genuinely correlated with the future prospects of other businesses.
Intel is going to sell fewer CPUs in the next 3 years if other businesses aren't hiring and expanding as quickly as they did during COVID. And I think there's a pretty good reason to think that Intel's revenues will actually shrink as a result.
That limits how much zig they can do while others zag.
fijiaarone|7 months ago
barchar|7 months ago
roughly|7 months ago
Historically Apple has done this - Steve Jobs noted at one point that the absolute last thing they were going to do during a recession was to cut R&D, because that was what was going to let them capitalize once the recession was over.
Left as an exercise for the reader is assessing Apple’s financial performance as relates to the rest of the industry, with extra credit for comparing that to the ongoing guidance from the finance industry set.
theflyinghorse|7 months ago
barkingcat|7 months ago
You'll find the same names appearing over and over again.
The reason all companies seem to do the same thing at the same time is that their boards are all the same people giving the same order to all their companies' ceo's at the same time.
markus_zhang|7 months ago
But there are CEOs who define an industry. Those are not easily swayed by big capital.
fijiaarone|7 months ago
nostrademons|7 months ago
Most hired executives play not to lose rather than playing to win; the nature of their compensation packages incentivizes it, where big wins accrue largely to diffuse shareholders while big losses mean they lose their fat executive pay package. It takes a founder-CEO to play to win, but if the hired CEO had that skillset and that inclination, they'd be a founder rather than a CEO.
Alupis|7 months ago
Most of these businesses are feeling the same pressures and experiencing the same problems... in silence. Eventually one of their competitors breaks (because they are forced to due to economic realities, etc) and starts making necessary moves (layoffs, efficiency improvements, etc). The rest follow-suit, breathing a collective sigh of relief that they weren't the first to make all the headlines.
vchere|7 months ago
But speaking of combining forces, Microsoft will be more likely to pick them up in a fire sale now, which I think would be best for all involved. Then you’re a couple of M&As away with first Dell and then Oracle.
Then they will select a champion to fight the Pentavirate at The Meadows!!
slefsacrifice|7 months ago
Nice “So I Married an Axe Murderer” reference!
It appears that Lip-Bu used an LLM to help write this memo. Also: 15% of staff with an arbitrary 50% management? Boy, he must have been up all night working on that one! Maybe everyone can have an ice cream social when they return- bring your own.
phendrenad2|7 months ago
SlowTao|7 months ago
I think they should do what you say but shareholders are looking for the quickest, best returns now, not in a few years time.
Lammy|7 months ago
drcongo|7 months ago
dlcarrier|7 months ago
Just like any bubble bursting, that is the best time for any well-positioned company to invest in that market. The problem with Intel is that they are far from well positioned. AMD and nVidia each have about a quarter of the employees that Intel has and TSMC has about half. Intel over-invested in employment so the over-employment bubble bursting will hit them hard. Their best bet is to refocus their current employees, but they might not be the right mix, so they may need to have even larger layoffs, while simultaneously highering new employees in pertinent fields.
niccl|7 months ago
Looking at Andy Grove's wikpedia page it could be that the above reflects his focus on "strategic inflection points"
So Intel used to do it once, but now, not so much
pdl27xl1c3|7 months ago
When the economy slows down, people and companies spend less. Less spending means fewer sales, which means less work and less money to pay staff. Since salaries are a big cost, companies cut jobs.
Before the downturn, spending was up, sales were up, and companies hired more people. Now they see they hired too many or inefficiently, so they cut headcount not only because demand is down, but also to fix those inefficiencies.
And about the argument of investing now to scoop up talent and push initiatives forward: downturns often come with higher interest rates. That makes it more expensive to raise money to invest. So why would companies do that now?
_shadi|7 months ago
tom_m|7 months ago
AI was a wonderful scapegoat. If it wasn't AI it'd be the economy or some other excuse. No one wants to admit mismanagement and overspending, but of course a business is going to take advantage of a discount. It's just a shame that wasn't a discount on property or hardware, it was on people.
Some other smaller companies are swept up in this because they follow moves from the larger companies. Everyone is trying to copy the leader, right? Everyone is asking "what's that big successful company do? That's what we need to do." So you have this absolutely horrible job hiring process in tech too as a result of that. You have excess and toxicity because people are trying to make something work that doesn't make sense for their business.
What do you think the whole $100 million bonuses for these AI people (which so far have been rumors) is going to do? It'll cause idiots elsewhere to go overpay and over hire because of FOMO...and once again more layoffs in the future.
And on and on we have these cycles.
rippeltippel|7 months ago
theGnuMe|7 months ago
So the "market" demands sacrifice basically and there is cover when everyone else is doing it. You can be contrarian but your stock may get punished. Intel may not have a good plan anyway. The reason the market demands sacrifice is likely because of predicted unfavorable economic headwinds (etc... so signs of recession or what not). These predictions could be wrong though. Companies do constantly realign though, product initiatives fail etc...
unknown|7 months ago
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spicyusername|7 months ago
They're just trying to get the job done and copying your partner's homework can save time, even if your partner didn't get the right answer or also just copied their partner.
CEOs, on average, don't know what they're doing any more than anyone in most other professions. They just happen to be born part of the ruling class.
didibus|7 months ago
It's like fashion, humans follow trends, almost always, and in the case of big companies, the CEOs are quite wealthy and that means the people they hangout with, the parties they attend, and the general circles they are part of, is pretty small (not that many people at that level of wealth), and so they're all mostly part of the same "clicks" that talk about and share the same ideas.
dayjah|7 months ago
Broadly speaking though, I think you’re experiencing confirmation bias to some degree. If you only look at companies that are on the struggle bus, then you only see a limited number of levers that management has (RIF, delay CapEx, etc). Other struggling companies that don’t take evasive maneuvers go out of business and we don’t hear the story.
fred_is_fred|7 months ago
karim79|7 months ago
I think there's a lot of "monkey see, monkey do" going on in the corporate world.
Also, shareholders and all that.
Intel doesn't have a meme-stock/vibe-stock thing going on at the moment (think Elon and getting to Mars by 2030, or robotaxis everywhere by the end of 2025 etc).
So I guess downsizing seems to be the only potential appeal for them right now.
Disclaimer: I know nothing
tjwebbnorfolk|7 months ago
oytis|7 months ago
kevmo|7 months ago
American markets have largely consolidated into oligopolies, where just a handful of very large companies operate. It's extremely easy for them to wink at each other and then raise prices/layoff workers, etc.
This is also being accelerated by the unregulated software market that lets the corporations hide behind algorithms, as we recently saw with realty. https://www.npr.org/2024/08/23/nx-s1-5087586/realpage-rent-l...
The end of ZIRP was the bat signal to corporate America to begin layoffs.
varispeed|7 months ago
okaram|7 months ago
Eventually some companies will start scooping talent up, and everybody will zig :)
FirmwareBurner|7 months ago
What would you do when you're bleeding money?
burnt-resistor|7 months ago
The problem is that multiple layoffs are terrible for morale and basically obliterate the motivation and mood of the remaining workers.
Reorgs are another common pattern of incompetent management that introduce chaos without bringing net positive value.
This is similar shit that happened in the '80's, '90's, and '00s and was captured culturally by Dilbert and Office Space.
Those who ignore the lessons of the past will make history rhyme once again.
chrisgd|7 months ago
hemloc_io|7 months ago
imagine this approach fails and you have to go to your board? They’re going to flat you alive and call you an idiot who should’ve done what everyone else was doing since it was obvious
but if you do what everyone else is doing? Well the macro changed obviously!
EDIT: I’ve worked at big tech companies where this was a meme, where the execs would do whatever meta/google did but six months later
chairmansteve|7 months ago
It's the companies with no ideas who have to cut costs.
unknown|7 months ago
[deleted]
cyanydeez|7 months ago
Prior to this, they could just get low interest loans to do whatever financial engineering they wanted to demonstrate growth and get their bag. That is over, now the only way to get the bag is firing people.
So, it's not just that they're all in a capitalist polycule, but is is that they all just live in the same bubble of irrational short term reasoning.
slowmovintarget|7 months ago
Layoffs and cost focus are two of those. There's also additional pressure from major shareholders (institutional) to reduce opex, even if the better strategy would sometimes be to stretch for some strategic goal when everyone else is contracting. Your stock is going to take a hit in the short term.
Lastly, some is just the "yell harder" mentality kicking in for management that doesn't actually know what to do.
const_cast|7 months ago
Particularly in tech and tech adjacent, there's a belief that doing what everyone else is doing is safe. It's the "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" approach but for corporate decision making.
If other companies return to office, you return to office. They're successful, so they must have good reasons - no need to investigate or come up with your own reasons. If other companies eliminate QA, you eliminate QA.
Most tech companies are just following what the big dogs are doing, but worse and stupider. When it backfires, nobody cares.
cyberax|7 months ago
Because they all studied the same MBA programs.
TylerE|7 months ago
lotsofpulp|7 months ago
StillBored|7 months ago
People complain about lack of US manufacturing, and short term thinking and its all heavily tied to a couple fundamental truths about companies in the USA.
Corporate raiding and looting is a core part of the fiance sector. There are a half dozen methods of asset stripping used against literally all successful businesses here. Much of this 'short term thinking' is either the business trying to make itself look less appealing, or the actual act of handing the money over directly via stock buybacks or dividends (which are at least taxed) rather than investing in the company.
'Investors' in the USA have absolutely zero interest in the actual companies they are investing in, because it is to easy to divest of those investments or sell/merge the resulting companies. The goal largely seems to be to create the illusion of success at any cost. If that means destroying the company to get a 10% return next month, then that's fine, because they will then turn around and sell it before it collapses.
At least some of this could be solve via strong incentives against short term investing. Say an actual value tax (rather than a capital gains tax) that penalizes holdings less than a couple years. A 25% value tax applied for holdings less than a year that decreases to 0 over some longer time-frame, say 5 years. Yes this would completely destroy the business model of quite a number of wall street firms, and maybe even make it hard for businesses to raise capital. But, it would put a lot more focus on buying businesses that actually have long term prospects, allow those businesses to invest in capital intensive manufacturing operations and a laundry list of other things most people agree is a good idea. It would also likely return stock prices to realistic future return numbers because investing in companies with obviously inflated market caps would become a lot more risky.
UncleOxidant|7 months ago
beefnugs|7 months ago
Now why all the countries start just warring and killing all at the same time... now that is weird. I guess the best bet is same people who own all the business, stop paying all the bribes at once or something and all the power people go nuts
kunley|7 months ago
Conspiracy theory: business leaders don't do as much as they should, so they imitate each others moves to justify their existence on the position. With a side effect of cluelessly influencing lives of thousands, but that's a repeated scheme in the overall history of civilization
georgeecollins|7 months ago
trentnix|7 months ago
tonymet|7 months ago
kindkang2024|7 months ago
Simple. These companies need enough 'fitness' in order to survive and thrive. No one has the power to fight against the Nature’s Wille—survival of the fittest. They have to obey, especially when faced with the ruthless, life-and-death competition of the commercial world.
P.S. Hoping this comment doesn’t get downvoted too much and end up dead, not surviving.
calculatte|7 months ago