[mattnewport]

What's the basis for your claim that it is on an exponential growth trajectory? That's not the way it feels to me as a fairly heavy user, it feels more like an asymptotic approach to expert human level performance where each new model gets a bit closer but is not yet reaching it, at least in areas where I am expert enough to judge. Improvements since the original ChatGPT don't feel exponential to me.

[samsartor]

This also tracks with my experience. Of course, technical progress never looks smooth through the steep part of the s-curve, more a sequence of jagged stair-steps (each their own little s-curve in miniature). We might only be at the top of a stair. But my feeling is that we're exhausting the form-factor of LLMs. If something new and impressive comes along it'll be shaped different and fill a different niche.