[nowayno583]

It is a very complex phenomenon, with no single driving force. The usual culprit is uncertainty, which itself can have a ton of root causes (say, tariffs changing every few weeks, or higher inflation due to government subsidies).

In more uncertain scenarios small companies can't take risks as well as big companies. The last 2 years have seen AI, which is a large risk these big companies invested in, pay off. But due to uncertainty smallish companies couldn't capitalize.

But that's only one possible explanation!

[automatic6131]

> The last 2 years have seen AI, which is a large risk these big companies invested in, pay off

LOL. It's paying off right now, because There Is No Alternative. But at some point, the companies and investors are going to want to make back these hundreds of billions. And the only people making money are Nvidia, and sort-of Microsoft through selling more Azure.

Once it becomes clear that there's no trillion dollar industry in cheating-at-homework-for-schoolkids, and nvidia stop selling more in year X than X-1, very quickly will people realize that the last 2 years have been a massive bubble.

[nowayno583]

That's a very out of the money view! If you are right you could make some very good money!