[knodi123]

That's remarkably short-sighted. First of all, no, millions of them don't walk the earth - the "A" stands for artificial. And secondly, most of us mere humans don't have the ability to design a next generation that is exponentially smarter and more powerful than us. Obviously the first generation of AGI isn't going to brutally conquer the world overnight. As if that's what we were worried about.

If you've got evidence proving that an AGI will never be able to design a more powerful and competent successor, then please share it- it would help me sleep better, and my ulcers might get smaller.

[seadan83]

Burden of proof is to show that AGI can do anything. Until then, the answer is "don't know."

FWIW, it's about 3 to 4 orders of magnitude difference between the human brain and the largest neural networks (as gauged by counting connections of synapses, the human brain is in the trillions while the largest neural networks are low billion)

So, what's the chance that all of the current technologies have a hard limit at less than one order of magnitude increase? What's the chance future technologies have a hard limit at two orders of magnitude increase?

Without knowing anything about those hard limits, it's like accelerating in a car from 0 to 60s in 5s. It does not imply that given 1000s you'll be going a million miles per hour. Faulty extrapolation.

It's currently just as irrational to believe that AGI will happen as it is to believe that AGI will never happen.

[knodi123]

> Burden of proof is to show that AGI can do anything.

Yeah, if this were a courtroom or a philosophy class or debate hall. But when a bunch of tech nerds are discussing AGI among themselves, claims that true AGI wouldn't be any more powerful than humans very very much have a burden of proof. That's a shocking claim that I've honestly never heard before, and seems to fly in the face of intuition.

[Scrounger]

> That's remarkably short-sighted

I agree. Once these models get to a point of recursive self-improvement, advancement will only speed up even more exponentially than it already is...