[netcan]

Its certainly an interesting race to watch.

Part of the fun is that predictions get tested on short enough timescales to "experience" in a satisfying way.

Idk where that puts me, in my guess at "hard takeoff." I was reserved/skeptical about hard takeoff all along.

Even if LLMs had improved at a faster rate... I still think bottlenecks are inevitable.

That said... I do expect progress to happen in spurts anyway. It makes sense that companies of similar competence and resources get to a similar place.

The winner take all thing is a little forced. "Race to singularity" is the fun, rhetorical version of the investment case. The implied boring case is facebook, adwords, aws, apple, msft... IE the modern tech sector tends to create singular big winners... and therefore our pre-revenue market cap should be $1trn.